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Selfoss vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-4
Selfoss
Selfoss
Vs
40%
24%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Selfoss win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Keflavik win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SelfossSelfoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W04L01L12L30W12L12L32W02LH·FYL11/07A·GRI18/07A·VÖL26/07H·IR 30/07A·NJA08/08H·HK 13/08H·FJO17/08A·THR23/08H·THO30/08A·LEI06/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.301.732.201.132.40
vs Stronger (1)4.000.004.000.00--
vs Similar (24)1.292.251.272.181.312.31
vs Weaker (5)1.603.002.673.000.003.00
Clean sheet %13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-723L54W22D20W03L40W04L72W24L21WA·THR11/07H·FJO18/07H·THO25/07A·LEI29/07A·HK 08/08H·GRI13/08A·FYL17/08H·VÖL23/08A·IR 29/08H·NJA06/09
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.703.001.291.922.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)2.091.912.171.332.002.55
vs Weaker (7)4.001.005.001.201.500.50
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.8%
No
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
4.9%
2-0
4.9%
1-0
4.6%
1-3
4.5%
Selfoss goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
01234
04.0%4.3%4.5%2.5%1.1%
14.6%10%7.9%4.5%1.9%
24.9%8.3%7.0%4.0%1.7%
32.9%4.9%4.2%2.4%1.0%
41.3%2.2%1.9%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Selfoss goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Thor Akureyri
2.05
Njardvik
1.92
HK Kopavogur
1.84
Keflavik
1.72
Throttur Reykjavik
1.71
IR Reykjavik
1.68
Völsungur
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.05
Fylkir
1.05
Grindavik
0.95
Selfoss
0.86
Fjolnir
0.68
Selfoss is 0.86 points worse than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Keflavik
2.44
Thor Akureyri
2.32
Njardvik
2.17
HK Kopavogur
2.12
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
1.73
IR Reykjavik
1.73
Völsungur
1.64
Fylkir
1.55
Fjolnir
1.45
Selfoss
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.09
Selfoss is 1.30 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Njardvik
1.21
IR Reykjavik
1.23
Thor Akureyri
1.41
Fylkir
1.45
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Keflavik
1.64
Leiknir R.
1.82
Throttur Reykjavik
1.83
Selfoss
2.00
Völsungur
2.36
Fjolnir
2.41
Grindavik
2.77
Selfoss is 0.36 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.64).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SelfossSelfoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W02L01L11D10W12L02L01L01LH·FYL11/07A·GRI18/07A·VÖL26/07H·IR 30/07A·NJA08/08H·HK 13/08H·FJO17/08A·THR23/08H·THO30/08A·LEI06/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.170.801.200.731.13
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.751.210.641.360.851.08
vs Weaker (5)0.601.201.001.000.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L11D10W02L20W01L31W13L00DA·THR11/07H·FJO18/07H·THO25/07A·LEI29/07A·HK 08/08H·GRI13/08A·FYL17/08H·VÖL23/08A·IR 29/08H·NJA06/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.901.410.711.081.15
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.131.041.080.831.181.27
vs Weaker (7)1.710.432.200.400.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SelfossSelfoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D02L00D01L20W00D10W31W01LH·FYL11/07A·GRI18/07A·VÖL26/07H·IR 30/07A·NJA08/08H·HK 13/08H·FJO17/08A·THR23/08H·THO30/08A·LEI06/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.130.931.000.401.27
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.541.040.640.820.461.23
vs Weaker (5)1.001.801.672.000.001.50
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L31W11D10W01L20W03L41W11D21WA·THR11/07H·FJO18/07H·THO25/07A·LEI29/07A·HK 08/08H·GRI13/08A·FYL17/08H·VÖL23/08A·IR 29/08H·NJA06/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.801.590.590.851.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.960.871.080.500.821.27
vs Weaker (7)2.290.572.800.801.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
SEL wins
0
Draws
2
KEF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Selfoss vs Keflavik · H/A from SEL
DateH/AGameScore
03/07/25AKeflavik Vs SEL3-2
28/02/25AKeflavik Vs SEL3-0

SelfossSelfoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/25ALeiknir R. Vs SEL2-0
30/08/25HSEL Vs Thor Akureyri3-2
23/08/25AThrottur Reykjavik Vs SEL2-1
17/08/25HSEL Vs Fjolnir1-2
13/08/25HSEL Vs HK Kopavogur3-0
08/08/25ANjardvik Vs SEL2-1
30/07/25HSEL Vs IR Reykjavik0-1
26/07/25AVölsungur Vs SEL4-0
18/07/25AGrindavik Vs SEL0-2
11/07/25HSEL Vs Fylkir3-1

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/25HKEF Vs Njardvik2-1
29/08/25AIR Reykjavik Vs KEF4-2
23/08/25HKEF Vs Völsungur7-2
17/08/25AFylkir Vs KEF4-0
13/08/25HKEF Vs Grindavik4-0
08/08/25AHK Kopavogur Vs KEF3-0
29/07/25ALeiknir R. Vs KEF0-2
25/07/25HKEF Vs Thor Akureyri2-2
18/07/25HKEF Vs Fjolnir5-4
11/07/25AThrottur Reykjavik Vs KEF3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Selfoss
Selfoss
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.00
HomeWLWLW1.36
AwayWLLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals3.803.923.68
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %72%80%64%
Over 3.5 %48%56%40%
Scored1.561.881.24
Conceded2.242.042.44
BTTS62%68%56%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.78
HomeWDWWW2.14
AwayLWLLL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%36%
AVG goals3.703.963.36
Over 1.5 %80%82%77%
Over 2.5 %68%71%64%
Over 3.5 %56%54%59%
Scored2.182.641.59
Conceded1.521.321.77
BTTS58%61%55%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NjardvikNjardvik2446
54%
1.9
5229+23
3.4
96%
75%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.2
-
2HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2546
56%
1.8
5338+15
3.6
92%
80%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
3Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2245
64%
2.0
5131+20
3.7
95%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.4
-
4KeflavikKeflavik2543
52%
1.7
6141+20
4.1
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.41.6
-
5Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2441
50%
1.7
4844+4
3.8
96%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik2237
45%
1.7
3827+11
3.0
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7VölsungurVölsungur2225
32%
1.1
3652-16
4.0
95%
77%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.4
-
8FylkirFylkir2223
27%
1.0
3432+2
3.0
91%
64%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2223
27%
1.0
2440-16
2.9
77%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.8
-
10GrindavikGrindavik2221
27%
1.0
3861-23
4.5
100%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.8
-
11SelfossSelfoss2219
27%
0.9
2544-19
3.1
95%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12FjolnirFjolnir2215
14%
0.7
3253-21
3.9
95%
77%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.4
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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