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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Chindia Targoviste Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 08:00
Final 1-1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Vs
64%
24%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
Romania: Liga II
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe a 64% win probability against Chindia Targoviste in the Romania: Liga II on 2026-05-16, with 24% for the draw and 13% for Chindia Targoviste. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (75%), Under 3.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe finished 1-1 against Chindia Targoviste (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 64% home win, 24% draw and 13% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (75%), Under 3.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win✗ Miss
63.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste win✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W10W20W11D10W23L21W20W02LH·ASA14/03H·BIH22/03A·COR04/04H·CSA11/04H·FC 15/04A·CHI18/04A·BIH23/04H·COR02/05A·CSA07/05A·FC 12/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.801.790.571.501.00
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.001.501.000.00
vs Similar (20)1.700.802.110.441.361.09
vs Weaker (7)1.710.711.330.332.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Chindia TargovisteChindia Targoviste

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L15L02L13L02L01L12L12L13L10WH·MET14/03A·FC 22/03A·CSA02/04H·BIH10/04A·COR14/04H·SEP18/04H·FC 25/04H·CSA01/05A·BIH05/05H·COR09/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.401.811.191.071.64
vs Stronger (8)1.121.251.751.250.501.25
vs Similar (19)1.471.531.821.271.001.88
vs Weaker (3)2.331.002.000.002.501.50
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
12.7%
1-1 ✓
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
4.4%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals ↓
Chindia Targoviste goals →
01234
08.3%4.4%2.0%0.5%0.1%
113%11%3.7%0.9%0.2%
213%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
38.1%6.0%2.2%0.5%0.1%
43.8%2.8%1.0%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals (down), columns = Chindia Targoviste goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Corvinul Hunedoara
2.23
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2.13
FC Voluntari
2.06
ASA Targu Mures
1.82
Metalul Buzău
1.79
Bihor Oradea
1.61
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.58
Slatina
1.54
FC Bacau
1.50
Concordia
1.46
Politehnica Iasi
1.46
CSM Reşiţa
1.43
Chindia Targoviste
1.33
CS Afumati
1.32
Gloria Bistriţa
1.21
Dumbrăviţa
1.14
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.13
CSM Satu Mare
1.00
Tunari
0.96
CS Dinamo București
0.87
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
0.71
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.39
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe is 0.80 points better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ASA Targu Mures
1.89
Bihor Oradea
1.81
Metalul Buzău
1.75
FC Voluntari
1.65
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.63
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.61
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.58
CSM Reşiţa
1.46
Slatina
1.43
Chindia Targoviste
1.40
Concordia
1.39
Gloria Bistriţa
1.39
CS Afumati
1.36
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.27
FC Bacau
1.25
CSM Satu Mare
1.25
Politehnica Iasi
1.14
Dumbrăviţa
1.11
Tunari
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.97
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
0.86
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.50
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe is 0.23 goals better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.68
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.77
FC Voluntari
0.77
Politehnica Iasi
1.00
Concordia
1.04
ASA Targu Mures
1.04
Metalul Buzău
1.14
Slatina
1.14
CS Afumati
1.25
FC Bacau
1.32
Gloria Bistriţa
1.32
Chindia Targoviste
1.37
CSM Reşiţa
1.39
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Dumbrăviţa
1.43
Bihor Oradea
1.45
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.48
CS Dinamo București
1.60
Tunari
1.64
CSM Satu Mare
1.93
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
2.21
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
2.57
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe is 0.60 goals better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CH (24)
€7m
SOS (31)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CH (12)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SOS (7)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Chindia Targoviste · H/A from SOS
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AChindia Targoviste Vs SOS0-1
13/02/23HSOS Vs Chindia Targoviste2-2
10/09/22AChindia Targoviste Vs SOS1-2

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/26AFC Voluntari Vs SOS2-0
07/05/26ACSA Steaua Bucureşti Vs SOS0-2
02/05/26HSOS Vs Corvinul Hunedoara2-1
23/04/26ABihor Oradea Vs SOS3-2
18/04/26AChindia Targoviste Vs SOS0-1
15/04/26HSOS Vs FC Voluntari1-1
11/04/26HSOS Vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti2-0
04/04/26ACorvinul Hunedoara Vs SOS0-1
22/03/26HSOS Vs Bihor Oradea3-0
14/03/26HSOS Vs ASA Targu Mures0-0

Chindia TargovisteChindia Targoviste

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HCT Vs Corvinul Hunedoara1-0
05/05/26ABihor Oradea Vs CT3-1
01/05/26HCT Vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti1-2
25/04/26HCT Vs FC Voluntari1-2
18/04/26HCT Vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0-1
14/04/26ACorvinul Hunedoara Vs CT2-0
10/04/26HCT Vs Bihor Oradea1-3
02/04/26ACSA Steaua Bucureşti Vs CT2-0
22/03/26AFC Voluntari Vs CT5-1
14/03/26HCT Vs Metalul Buzău2-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.66
HomeDWWDW1.88
AwayWWLWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals2.402.402.40
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.361.481.24
Conceded1.040.921.16
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet44%52%36%
Corners9.7110.279.10
Cards3.623.453.80
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.38
HomeLLLLW1.58
AwayWLLLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.682.962.38
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %46%58%33%
Over 3.5 %32%42%21%
Scored1.441.771.08
Conceded1.241.191.29
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Corvinul HunedoaraCorvinul Hunedoara3169
68%
2.2
5021+29
2.3
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.60.7
-
2FC VoluntariFC Voluntari3164
61%
2.1
5124+27
2.4
68%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.60.8
-
3Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe3064
63%
2.1
4923+26
2.4
77%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.60.8
-
4ASA Targu MuresASA Targu Mures2851
54%
1.8
5329+24
2.9
79%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
5Metalul BuzăuMetalul Buzău2850
57%
1.8
4932+17
2.9
71%
54%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.1
-
6Bihor OradeaBihor Oradea3150
48%
1.6
5645+11
3.3
87%
71%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
7CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti3149
48%
1.6
4946+3
3.1
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
8SlatinaSlatina2843
43%
1.5
4032+8
2.6
79%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
9FC BacauFC Bacau2842
43%
1.5
3537-2
2.6
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
10ConcordiaConcordia2841
43%
1.5
3929+10
2.4
68%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
11Politehnica IasiPolitehnica Iasi2841
43%
1.5
3228+4
2.1
61%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
12CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa2840
43%
1.4
4139+2
2.9
82%
46%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
13Chindia TargovisteChindia Targoviste3040
40%
1.3
4241+1
2.8
77%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
14CS AfumatiCS Afumati2837
39%
1.3
3835+3
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
15Gloria BistriţaGloria Bistriţa2834
32%
1.2
3937+2
2.7
82%
57%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
16Viitorul ŞelimbărViitorul Şelimbăr3034
30%
1.1
3842-4
2.7
73%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
17DumbrăviţaDumbrăviţa2832
32%
1.1
3140-9
2.5
64%
46%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
18CSM Satu MareCSM Satu Mare2828
29%
1.0
3554-19
3.2
79%
57%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
19TunariTunari2827
21%
1.0
2846-18
2.6
86%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
20CS Dinamo BucureștiCS Dinamo București3026
20%
0.9
2948-19
2.6
83%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
21Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţCeahlăul Piatra Neamţ2820
18%
0.7
2462-38
3.1
86%
61%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
22Muscelul Câmpulung EliteMuscelul Câmpulung Elite2811
7%
0.4
1472-58
3.1
71%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Romania: Liga II 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →

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