Servette FC’s recent win against Grasshoppers and Basel’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.6 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.6 % chance. Home advantage is favored, with a 46 % chance of a Servette victory, a 23 % chance of a draw, and a 30 % chance of a Basel win. Servette’s home form shows 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against similar opposition, while Basel’s away form indicates only 0.89 goals scored and 2.56 conceded. The model’s selections include an 88.9 % chance of over 19.5 fouls (hit), an 88.3 % chance of over 1.5 (miss), an 83.6 % chance of over 2.5 cards, a 78.7 % chance of over 21.5 fouls (hit), and a 70.7 % chance of over 8.5 corners (hit).
Results analysis
Servette FC, riding a win after a five-match run, faced FC Basel 1893, who were on a two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 46 % probability, yet the match ended 0-1 in Basel’s favour, proving the model’s call wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.9 %, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 78.7 %, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 70.7 %, while Over 1.5 missed. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away win, underscoring the surprise upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Servette FC win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 win✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Servette FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.60
2.07
1.36
1.88
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.40
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.77
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
2.67
5.00
3.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.70
1.12
1.25
1.29
2.21
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.82
1.08
1.31
0.89
2.56
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.6%
Under 2.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
5.8%
2-0
5.5%
3-2
4.7%
1-0
4.6%
Servette FC goals ↓
FC Basel 1893 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
1
4.6%
9.6%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
2
5.5%
8.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.6%
5.8%
4.7%
2.5%
1.0%
4
1.8%
2.9%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Servette FC goals (down), columns = FC Basel 1893 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
1.97
FC ST. Gallen
1.84
FC Lugano
1.76
FC Sion
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.47
BSC Young Boys
1.45
Servette FC
1.39
FC Luzern
1.39
Lausanne
1.11
FC Zurich
1.00
FC Vaduz
0.98
Grasshoppers
0.93
Servette FC is 0.08 points worse than FC Basel 1893 in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.11
BSC Young Boys
2.11
FC Luzern
2.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Servette FC
1.87
FC Sion
1.66
FC Lugano
1.55
FC Basel 1893
1.45
Lausanne
1.39
FC Zurich
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.25
FC Vaduz
1.16
Servette FC is 0.42 goals better than FC Basel 1893 in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
1.05
FC Lugano
1.11
FC ST. Gallen
1.24
FC Thun
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.53
Servette FC
1.66
FC Luzern
1.74
Lausanne
1.76
BSC Young Boys
1.82
Grasshoppers
1.88
FC Zurich
1.89
FC Vaduz
2.14
Servette FC is 0.13 goals worse than FC Basel 1893 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
56%
BSC Young Boys
55%
FC Basel 1893
55%
Servette FC
52%
FC Sion
51%
FC Zurich
51%
FC Luzern
50%
Lausanne
50%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC ST. Gallen
45%
Servette FC is 3.3 percentage points worse than FC Basel 1893 in terms of average possession (52% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Servette FC
For 4.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Basel 1893
For 5.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 16.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Servette FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.0
11.0
4.3
4.2
4.4
23.6
23.6
23.7
vs Stronger (10)
12.0
10.8
13.2
4.3
4.2
4.4
20.0
20.2
19.8
vs Similar (36)
10.3
9.9
10.8
4.4
4.5
4.4
24.4
24.7
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.5
2.0
5.0
23.8
19.5
28.0
% over line
60%
60%
61%
68%
65%
71%
67%
68%
65%
% under line
40%
40%
39%
32%
35%
29%
33%
32%
35%
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.1
10.4
4.8
5.1
4.5
26.7
27.4
26.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.3
6.0
8.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
23.7
26.0
22.5
vs Similar (38)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.6
4.9
4.3
26.7
27.8
25.7
vs Weaker (9)
10.8
10.0
11.8
5.9
5.4
6.5
27.7
26.2
29.5
% over line
56%
52%
60%
76%
80%
72%
86%
92%
80%
% under line
44%
48%
40%
24%
20%
28%
14%
8%
20%
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.9
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
Lausanne
10.7
Servette FC
10.5
FC Basel 1893
10.3
FC Thun
10.2
FC Luzern
10.1
FC Sion
9.9
Grasshoppers
9.6
BSC Young Boys
9.6
FC Vaduz
9.4
FC Lugano
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
6.0
FC Vaduz
5.3
Grasshoppers
5.2
FC Thun
5.1
FC Sion
4.9
Lausanne
4.9
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Luzern
4.5
Servette FC
4.4
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
29.9
FC Thun
28.3
FC Sion
27.1
FC Zurich
26.8
FC Basel 1893
26.7
FC Vaduz
25.4
FC Lugano
25.1
Grasshoppers
25.1
Lausanne
24.4
FC Luzern
24.1
BSC Young Boys
23.9
Servette FC
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.7%
Under 21.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Servette FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.14
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.72
0.92
0.42
0.69
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
3.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.44
0.50
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.73
0.46
0.46
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Servette FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.87
0.93
0.71
1.25
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.68
0.75
0.58
1.31
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.69
0.75
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
1.09
0.62
0.85
0.67
1.44
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (39)
€83m
FB1 (29)
€70m
FL (34)
€69m
FZ (82)
€58m
LAU (62)
€47m
FSG (33)
€41m
FL (31)
€41m
FT (28)
€30m
FS (28)
€29m
SF (28)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
Servette FC's squad is €53m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€17m vs €70m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (12)
€37m
FZ (25)
€23m
FSG (15)
€20m
BYB (8)
€18m
LAU (23)
€18m
FS (11)
€17m
FL (12)
€15m
FL (9)
€8m
FT (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€4m
FV (8)
€2m
Servette FC's attack is €32m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€4m vs €37m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (11)
€21m
FB1 (5)
€17m
FZ (21)
€16m
FT (10)
€13m
LAU (12)
€9m
FL (8)
€9m
SF (10)
€6m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (7)
€5m
FL (5)
€5m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC's midfield is €11m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€6m vs €17m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€52m
BYB (20)
€44m
FL (14)
€20m
LAU (27)
€20m
FZ (36)
€19m
FB1 (12)
€15m
FSG (12)
€14m
FT (11)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
SF (12)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC's defence is €10m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€6m vs €15m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
FC ST. Gallen
FC Sion
Lausanne
FC Luzern
FC Thun
FC Zurich
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz