Servette FC is the clear favourite to win this match, and the model rates them so highly due to their impressive home form. At home, they have scored an average of 5 goals and conceded just 1.5, indicating their dominance on their own turf. Grasshoppers, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of just 1.23 goals and conceding 1.85 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 63% chance of a home win, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 15% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.1%.
Servette FC's home scoring and conceding form is a significant advantage, and the model's selection is the Home win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.1% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 75.3% probability. Grasshoppers have struggled to score away from home, and the model's selections reflect this. The home win percentage is 63%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
Results analysis
The win extends Servette FC's run of two consecutive victories, with the latest triumph coming against Grasshoppers. The final score was 2-1, confirming the actual result of Home win. The Pythia prediction model correctly identified the favourite, Home win, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's selection was correct, as it landed the favoured result.
The model's selection of Home win was the clear favourite, while the suggested picks largely came in. Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.2% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls also hit, with a 75.3% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Servette FC winâś“ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied 63.4% · @ 1.47
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.53
SBO
1.53
Dafabet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Drawâś— Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.35
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.74
Dafabet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Grasshoppers winâś— Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 15.2% · @ 6.12
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.00
Pinnacle
6.71
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
BetVictor
6.50
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Servette FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.57
1.93
1.36
1.88
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.76
1.36
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.69
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
2.67
5.00
3.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.00
1.93
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (15)
1.40
1.73
1.12
1.88
1.71
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.80
0.86
2.00
0.88
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
@ 1.19+3.1%
Under 1.5
18.8%
@ 4.25-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.45
Unibet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.66+1.1%
Under 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.16-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
@ 2.61-0.2%
Under 3.5
64.7%
@ 1.44+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.70
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.65
Under
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.79+6.6%
No
41.6%
@ 1.92-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
888Sport
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
No
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
1.93
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 7.75+5.8%
2-1 âś“
9.8%@ 7.56+3.9%
2-0
8.6%@ 7.22+2.4%
1-0
8.2%@ 7.04+1.8%
3-1
6.1%@ 10.92+2.0%
0-0
6.0%@ 12.52+2.4%
1-2
6.0%@ 16.51+3.3%
2-2
5.6%@ 15.06+2.6%
Servette FC goals ↓
Grasshoppers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.6%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.2%
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Servette FC goals (down), columns = Grasshoppers goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
Servette FC and Grasshoppers are level in average points per game (both 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
Servette FC is 0.60 goals worse than Grasshoppers in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
Servette FC is 1.20 goals better than Grasshoppers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
Servette FC is 7.2 percentage points better than Grasshoppers in terms of average possession (53% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Servette FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.64
0.83
0.33
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
3.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.47
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.40
1.00
0.29
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Servette FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.90
0.86
0.79
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.72
0.67
0.67
1.38
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.07
0.50
1.12
0.86
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+3.1%
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
1.43
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
+6.1%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
Servette FC's squad is €6m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€21m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC's attack is €2m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€7m vs €4m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
Servette FC's midfield is €2m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
Servette FC and Grasshoppers have a similar defence value (both €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
FC Zurich
FC Vaduz