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Sesvete vs Dugopolje Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 11:45
Final 1-2
Sesvete
Sesvete
Vs
54%
29%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dugopolje
Dugopolje
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Sesvete a 54% win probability against Dugopolje in the Croatia: First NL on 2026-05-16, with 29% for the draw and 17% for Dugopolje. The model estimates around 2.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (15.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (83%).

Results analysis

Sesvete finished 1-2 against Dugopolje (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 29% draw and 17% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (83%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Sesvete win✗ Miss
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje win✓ Hit
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SesveteSesvete

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W21W20W10W24L11D31W30W02LH·DUG07/03A·HRV14/03H·ORI20/03A·JAR28/03H·OPA02/04A·HRV11/04H·CRO18/04A·DUB25/04H·KAR01/05A·HNK09/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.731.400.471.131.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.210.541.420.251.000.83
vs Weaker (6)1.501.501.331.331.671.67
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DugopoljeDugopolje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W00D03L30W11D43W30W21W12LA·SES07/03H·HNK14/03H·JAR22/03A·OPA27/03H·HRV04/04A·CRO12/04H·DUB18/04A·KAR24/04H·HNK04/05H·BSK09/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.031.751.000.711.07
vs Stronger (3)0.671.331.001.000.501.50
vs Similar (27)1.331.001.801.000.751.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.8%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
12.2%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
5.9%
1-2 ✓
4.1%
Sesvete goals ↓
Dugopolje goals →
01234
013%7.1%2.9%0.7%0.1%
116%13%4.1%1.0%0.2%
212%8.5%3.0%0.7%0.1%
35.9%4.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%
42.1%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sesvete goals (down), columns = Dugopolje goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Sesvete is 0.09 points better than Dugopolje in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.64).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Sesvete is 0.06 goals better than Dugopolje in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.21).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Sesvete is 0.30 goals better than Dugopolje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SesveteSesvete

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W10W10W00D01L00D20W30W01LH·DUG07/03A·HRV14/03H·ORI20/03A·JAR28/03H·OPA02/04A·HRV11/04H·CRO18/04A·DUB25/04H·KAR01/05A·HNK09/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.300.600.200.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.580.290.580.170.580.42
vs Weaker (6)0.670.330.670.330.670.33
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DugopoljeDugopolje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D03L10W01L31W30W21W11DA·SES07/03H·HNK14/03H·JAR22/03A·OPA27/03H·HRV04/04A·CRO12/04H·DUB18/04A·KAR24/04H·HNK04/05H·BSK09/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.880.620.360.64
vs Stronger (3)0.331.001.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (27)0.670.590.870.670.420.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (38)
€5m
SES (57)
€5m
O1 (36)
€5m
BBB (30)
€4m
RUD (35)
€4m
DUG (43)
€4m
CZ (43)
€4m
HC (29)
€4m
K1 (44)
€4m
HRV (52)
€3m
OPA (39)
€3m
Sesvete and Dugopolje have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (0)
€0m
BBB (0)
€0m
CZ (0)
€0m
DZ (0)
€0m
DUG (0)
€0m
HC (0)
€0m
HRV (0)
€0m
K1 (0)
€0m
OPA (0)
€0m
O1 (0)
€0m
SES (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Sesvete vs Dugopolje · H/A from SES
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26HSES Vs Dugopolje3-0
12/10/25ADugopolje Vs SES1-1
04/04/25HSES Vs Dugopolje1-0
22/11/24HSES Vs Dugopolje3-1
14/09/24ADugopolje Vs SES0-0
13/04/24ADugopolje Vs SES1-3
28/10/23ADugopolje Vs SES1-1
12/08/23HSES Vs Dugopolje0-1

SesveteSesvete

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AHNK Cibalia Vs SES2-0
01/05/26HSES Vs Karlovac 19193-0
25/04/26ADubrava Zagreb Vs SES1-3
18/04/26HSES Vs Croatia Zmijavci1-1
11/04/26AHrvace Vs SES4-2
02/04/26HSES Vs Opatija1-0
28/03/26AJarun Vs SES0-2
20/03/26HSES Vs Orijent 19192-1
14/03/26AHrvace Vs SES1-2
07/03/26HSES Vs Dugopolje3-0

DugopoljeDugopolje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HDUG Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo1-2
04/05/26HDUG Vs HNK Cibalia2-1
24/04/26AKarlovac 1919 Vs DUG0-3
18/04/26HDUG Vs Dubrava Zagreb4-3
12/04/26ACroatia Zmijavci Vs DUG1-1
04/04/26HDUG Vs Hrvace3-0
27/03/26AOpatija Vs DUG3-0
22/03/26HDUG Vs Jarun0-0
14/03/26HDUG Vs HNK Cibalia2-1
07/03/26ASesvete Vs DUG3-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Sesvete
Sesvete
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.68
HomeWWWDW1.68
AwayWWLWL1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals1.982.001.96
Over 1.5 %58%56%60%
Over 2.5 %34%40%28%
Over 3.5 %14%12%16%
Scored1.201.241.16
Conceded0.780.760.80
BTTS32%32%32%
Clean Sheet48%48%48%
Corners---
Cards---
Dugopolje
Dugopolje
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.36
HomeDWWWL1.96
AwayLLLDW0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%56%20%
AVG goals2.602.882.32
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %22%28%16%
Scored1.201.680.72
Conceded1.401.201.60
BTTS50%64%36%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RudesRudes3365
58%
2.0
4929+20
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.50.9
-
2HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3358
52%
1.8
5133+18
2.5
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.51.0
-
3SesveteSesvete3357
48%
1.7
4228+14
2.1
67%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.30.8
-
4DugopoljeDugopolje3354
48%
1.6
4038+2
2.4
70%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.2
-
5Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3347
39%
1.4
3946-7
2.6
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.4
-
6Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3342
33%
1.3
3030+0
1.8
58%
27%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0000.90.9
-
7Karlovac 1919Karlovac 19193342
39%
1.3
4045-5
2.6
73%
55%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.4
-
8OpatijaOpatija3340
30%
1.2
3138-7
2.1
70%
36%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.91.2
-
9Orijent 1919Orijent 19193338
27%
1.2
4041-1
2.5
73%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.21.2
-
10HrvaceHrvace3336
30%
1.1
3648-12
2.5
70%
61%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.11.5
-
11Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3335
27%
1.1
3246-14
2.4
70%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.01.4
-
12JarunJarun3333
24%
1.0
3442-8
2.3
76%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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