This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
0.81
1.44
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
2.22
0.56
1.89
0.56
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.83
1.14
0.86
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.89-5.4%
Under 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.89+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.8%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-0 ✓
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
Setubal goals ↓
Belenenses goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.9%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.8%
8.2%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Setubal goals (down), columns = Belenenses goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
1.76
Sporting CP
1.76
Rio Ave
1.62
Famalicao
1.59
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.26
Santa Clara
1.26
Moreirense
1.26
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Belenenses
1.03
Setubal
1.00
Portimonense
0.97
Aves
0.50
Setubal is 0.03 points worse than Belenenses in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.09
SC Braga
1.79
Famalicao
1.56
Guimaraes
1.56
Sporting CP
1.44
Rio Ave
1.41
Moreirense
1.24
GIL Vicente
1.18
Santa Clara
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Maritimo
1.00
Tondela
0.88
Portimonense
0.88
Boavista
0.82
Belenenses
0.79
Setubal
0.79
Aves
0.71
Setubal and Belenenses are level in goals scored per game (both 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Benfica
0.76
Sporting CP
1.00
Rio Ave
1.06
Guimaraes
1.12
Boavista
1.15
SC Braga
1.18
Santa Clara
1.21
Maritimo
1.24
Setubal
1.26
Tondela
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Belenenses
1.59
Aves
2.00
Setubal is 0.32 goals better than Belenenses in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
S
Setubal
For 3.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 15.0 · Total 30.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belenenses
For 4.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.1 · Against 17.0 · Total 34.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.5
11.6
5.8
5.6
6.0
32.0
31.8
32.2
vs Stronger (31)
10.8
10.8
10.9
5.8
6.0
5.7
30.6
31.3
29.8
vs Similar (19)
11.4
10.1
12.5
5.8
4.9
6.6
34.4
32.8
35.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
60%
72%
74%
64%
84%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
34%
40%
28%
26%
36%
16%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.6
10.8
5.1
5.2
5.0
31.8
33.1
30.3
vs Stronger (28)
9.7
8.9
10.6
5.0
5.2
4.7
30.0
31.4
28.6
vs Similar (22)
9.5
8.3
11.0
5.2
5.2
5.3
34.0
35.1
32.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
42%
54%
72%
65%
79%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
28%
35%
21%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aves
12.1
Guimaraes
11.1
Setubal
11.0
Pacos Ferreira
10.9
Boavista
10.9
Santa Clara
10.8
Benfica
10.6
Sporting CP
10.6
Famalicao
10.6
SC Braga
10.5
Tondela
10.4
Moreirense
10.3
Maritimo
10.2
Rio Ave
9.9
Belenenses
9.6
Portimonense
9.5
FC Porto
9.3
GIL Vicente
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Famalicao
6.2
Sporting CP
6.2
Setubal
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
SC Braga
5.7
Boavista
5.6
FC Porto
5.5
Maritimo
5.4
Aves
5.3
Tondela
5.3
Rio Ave
5.1
Belenenses
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Moreirense
5.0
Santa Clara
4.7
Guimaraes
4.6
Portimonense
4.6
GIL Vicente
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
34.7
Pacos Ferreira
34.5
GIL Vicente
33.6
Maritimo
33.4
Aves
32.9
Moreirense
32.4
Tondela
32.2
Portimonense
32.0
Setubal
32.0
Rio Ave
31.8
Belenenses
31.8
Sporting CP
31.5
Famalicao
31.4
Guimaraes
31.3
FC Porto
31.3
Santa Clara
30.9
SC Braga
30.4
Benfica
27.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.8%
Under 3.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.0%
Under 21.5
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.63
0.33
0.89
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.56
1.00
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
1.00
0.44
1.33
0.22
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.33
0.71
0.57
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.25
0.44
0.43
1.50
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.22
0.11
0.56
0.33
1.89
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Belenenses
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Guimaraes
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Boavista
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Portimonense