This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
0.73
2.25
0.62
2.36
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.48
0.74
2.50
0.64
2.46
0.85
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%
1-1 ✓
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
0-3
7.4%
1-3
6.9%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
4.6%
Setubal goals ↓
Sporting CP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
9.4%
11%
7.4%
3.9%
1
3.7%
11%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.1%
4.4%
4.6%
3.2%
1.6%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Setubal goals (down), columns = Sporting CP goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Setubal is 1.35 points worse than Sporting CP in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Setubal is 0.71 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Setubal is 1.12 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
S
Setubal
For 4.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.3 · Against 22.3 · Total 39.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP
For 4.6 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.8 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.1
1.9
1.8
2.0
35.6
33.4
37.7
vs Stronger (29)
10.2
10.6
9.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
35.5
32.8
38.2
vs Similar (21)
8.6
9.0
8.2
2.1
1.8
2.4
35.6
34.2
37.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
56%
33%
28%
28%
28%
94%
89%
100%
% under line
56%
44%
67%
72%
72%
72%
6%
11%
0%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.5
11.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
31.9
31.8
32.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
13.5
12.0
15.0
1.5
1.7
1.3
30.0
30.0
30.0
vs Weaker (44)
9.9
9.2
10.9
1.5
1.4
1.5
32.1
32.0
32.3
% over line
56%
50%
62%
22%
23%
21%
94%
90%
100%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
78%
77%
79%
6%
10%
0%
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
11.8
Benfica
11.7
Feirense
11.3
Guimaraes
10.9
Estoril
10.8
Pacos Ferreira
10.4
FC Porto
10.4
Sporting CP
10.3
Moreirense
10.2
Portimonense
9.9
Boavista
9.9
Maritimo
9.7
SC Braga
9.5
Setubal
9.5
Belenenses
9.3
Tondela
9.2
Rio Ave
8.8
Aves
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.1
Rio Ave
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.6
FC Porto
5.4
Setubal
5.2
Tondela
5.2
Guimaraes
5.1
Estoril
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Boavista
4.9
Belenenses
4.8
Chaves
4.7
Moreirense
4.7
Aves
4.4
Maritimo
4.4
Portimonense
4.4
Sporting CP
4.1
Benfica
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.7
Setubal
35.6
Belenenses
34.1
SC Braga
33.7
Rio Ave
33.7
Guimaraes
33.1
Estoril
32.8
Moreirense
32.6
Maritimo
32.2
Sporting CP
31.9
Tondela
31.4
Aves
31.1
Chaves
30.8
Boavista
30.4
Pacos Ferreira
29.7
Benfica
29.4
FC Porto
29.4
Portimonense
28.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.3%
Under 3.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.3%
Under 21.5
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.40
0.47
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.78
0.56
0.56
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.67
0.17
0.33
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.13
1.19
0.00
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.11
0.15
1.29
0.00
0.92
0.31
Clean sheet %
87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.60
1.07
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.11
0.44
1.22
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.75
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.60
1.06
0.62
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.37
0.59
1.21
0.64
1.54
0.54
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting CP · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fotis Ioannidis67%
Flávio Gonçalves50%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Luis Javier Suárez25%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Geny Catamo25%
Sergi Altimira25%
Rui Silva0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Javier Suárez50%
Geny Catamo50%
Gonçalo Inácio33%
Jesse Derry33%
Sergi Altimira25%
Fotis Ioannidis0%
Rui Silva0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Flávio Gonçalves0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Geny Catamo50%
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Issa Doumbia25%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Geny Catamo0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Chaves
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Moreirense
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril