At a glance the model favours an Atletico Madrid win, with a 44% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a Sevilla win. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Sevilla, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded, while Atletico, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Sevilla’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, and Atletico is coming off a draw. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5% with a 6% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.0% with a 2% edge).
Results analysis
The win for Atletico Madrid extends their recent winning run, while Sevilla’s form dips after a defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, matching the 1-3 final score. It also predicted a 44% chance of the away side triumphing, a 28% chance of a draw and 28% for a home win. The most likely total of two goals materialised, with the model assigning a 26% probability to that figure. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit with a 99.5% probability, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals missed at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.9%, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sevilla win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.95
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.27
1xBet
4.21
Bet365
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.39
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.53
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Atletico Madrid win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 2.00
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.16
SBO
2.08
10Bet
2.08
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sevilla
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.14
1.14
1.19
1.81
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.40
1.17
1.17
1.15
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.57
2.12
1.25
1.64
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.75
2.67
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
1.44
1.80
1.20
1.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
@ 1.34+4.4%
Under 1.5
25.2%
@ 3.19-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.07+2.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.77-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Under
SBO
1.88
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.7%
@ 3.63+0.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
@ 1.27-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.85+3.2%
No
46.4%
@ 1.88-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
No
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.10+6.0%
0-1
9.6%@ 6.53+2.6%
1-2
9.1%@ 8.16+3.5%
0-0
8.6%@ 9.04+3.5%
0-2
8.0%@ 8.70+2.8%
1-0
7.1%@ 9.84+2.4%
2-1
7.0%@ 12.19+3.2%
2-2
5.2%@ 14.27+2.0%
Sevilla goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.6%
8.0%
4.0%
1.5%
1
7.1%
14%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.7%
7.0%
5.2%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sevilla goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Sevilla is 0.68 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Sevilla is 0.42 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Sevilla is 0.42 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Sevilla is 2.4 percentage points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sevilla
For 3.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.1 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 6.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sevilla
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.0
10.6
5.2
6.1
4.3
27.6
29.0
26.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
10.2
10.3
5.6
6.8
4.0
23.4
23.0
24.0
vs Similar (40)
9.2
7.5
10.7
5.2
5.8
4.6
28.3
30.3
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
9.0
1.5
28.0
29.0
27.0
% over line
45%
38%
52%
64%
79%
50%
82%
83%
80%
% under line
55%
62%
48%
36%
21%
50%
18%
17%
20%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
4.0
3.6
4.3
20.9
20.4
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.8
9.2
10.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
21.2
21.9
20.6
vs Weaker (33)
11.4
11.6
11.1
3.6
3.3
3.9
20.8
19.7
21.9
% over line
64%
60%
68%
54%
48%
60%
50%
44%
56%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
46%
52%
40%
50%
56%
44%
This opponent (Sevilla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Espanyol
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
8.9
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.3
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.3
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.6
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.5
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.92-2.7%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.81+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Unibet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.9%
@ 1.37+9.2%
Under 3.5
23.1%
@ 2.88-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Superbet
2.90
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.5%
@ 1.33+9.4%
Under 21.5
22.5%
@ 2.85-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sevilla or Draw✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.82
Edge
+7.0%
28%
28%
44%
covers Sevilla + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Sevilla or Atletico Madrid✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.3%
28%
28%
44%
covers Sevilla + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Atletico Madrid✓ Hit
69.9%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-5.8%
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sevilla over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
@ 1.50+7.0%
Under
30.7%
@ 2.48-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Sevilla over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 3.49+6.2%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.28-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.84
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Under
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Sevilla over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 9.26+1.5%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.04-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Sevilla over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 24.17-0.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.8%
@ 1.21-1.2%
Under
24.2%
@ 4.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.29
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 2.09-3.4%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.70+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
17.1%
@ 4.50-3.7%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.18+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Pinnacle
4.60
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 10.54-3.4%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sevilla, so a minus line means Sevilla give that many goals of a start and Atletico Madrid receive them. At -1, Sevilla must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sevilla win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sevilla)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Sevilla -2
4.1%
@ 23.80+0.2%
Draw -2
8.8%
@ 11.10+0.4%
Atletico Madrid +2
87.1%
@ 1.05-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
17.00
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Sevilla)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Sevilla -1
12.9%
@ 9.48+3.3%
Draw -1
17.3%
@ 5.42+0.5%
Atletico Madrid +1
69.9%
@ 1.24-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.90
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.20
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (Sevilla)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Sevilla +1
58.8%
@ 1.81+8.8%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 3.59-4.2%
Atletico Madrid -1
20.2%
@ 3.64-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.80
Draw
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
10Bet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
Bet365
3.50
Handicap +2 (Sevilla)Actual: Draw
Sevilla +2
79.8%
@ 1.25+7.2%
Draw +2
12.6%
@ 5.61-3.5%
Atletico Madrid -2
7.6%
@ 7.97-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Away
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sevilla
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.42
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.83
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.89
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.3%
@ 1.43+4.8%
Under 0.5
29.7%
@ 2.72-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.2%
@ 3.03+2.3%
Under 1.5
66.8%
@ 1.36-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.12
Under
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 8.04-0.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.40
William Hil
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sevilla over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.0%
@ 2.59+7.0%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.46-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Sevilla over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 10.01+1.4%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.03-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.50
Superbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Sevilla over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 27.00-2.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.4%
@ 1.91+0.6%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.81-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.82
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.8%
@ 5.62-2.7%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.05
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.5%
@ 14.12-4.2%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sevilla
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.64
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.84
0.75
0.67
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.33
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.56
1.30
0.60
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.26+1.9%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 3.62-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 2.23+0.8%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.62-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 4.99-0.9%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.15+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sevilla over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.0%
@ 2.15+6.8%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.63-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.61
Sevilla over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 6.88+1.0%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.08-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.30
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Sevilla over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 18.25-2.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.9%
@ 1.63-0.0%
Under
43.1%
@ 2.15+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 4.06-5.2%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.20+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.38-4.9%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
1.05
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.08
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.5%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
1.28
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.3%
1.30
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.43
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+4.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sevilla
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chidera Ejuke33%
Jon Guridi33%
Peque Fernández33%
Isaac Romero33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Romero100%
Gabriel Suazo67%
Jon Guridi67%
Lucien Agoumé33%
Peque Fernández33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Romero33%
Robbie Ure33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Miguel Sierra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robbie Ure33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Isaac Romero0%
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Sevilla's squad is €519m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€134m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Sevilla's attack is €245m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€45m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Sevilla's midfield is €132m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€23m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Sevilla's defence is €142m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€65m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga