Sheffield Weds vs West Brom Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 49 % chance for West Brom, a 29 % chance for a draw and a 22 % chance for Sheffield Weds to lift the trophy at home. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6 % probability. Sheffield Weds, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, while West Brom on the road average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 85.9 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.6 %, Under 3.5 at 77.8 %, Under 4.5 cards at 72.8 %, Under 23.5 fouls at 71.3 % and Over 1.5 at 70.5 %. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the edge is noted only where provided.

The pre-match favourite, West Brom, was expected to win with a 49 % probability, but Sheffield Weds pulled off a 2-1 home victory, extending their recent run of L W W W L. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 25.5 fouls, Under 3.5, Under 23.5 fouls, and Over 1.5, all with probabilities of 85.9 %, 83.6 %, 77.8 %, 71.3 % and 70.5 % respectively. The only miss was Under 4.5 cards at 72.8 %. The expected total of 2.4 goals and the most likely 2-goal total at 27 % were not realised.