Sheffield Wedsâ recent run of two straight defeats sets a bleak tone for their home fixture, while Wolves are riding a two-game winning streak. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning the away side a 78% chance of triumph, the home side only 5%, and a 17% draw probability. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, which the model rates at 17.7%. Sheffield Weds average 0.5 goals scored and 1.83 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Wolves average 1.0 goal scored and none conceded on the road against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 7.5 at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 goals at 99.1% with a 7% edge, Away +2 handicap at 99.0% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Under 6.5 at 98.3% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2% with a 3% edge, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6% with a 6% edge.
Results analysis
The Wolvesâ 2-0 win over Sheffield Weds extended their two-game winning run, confirming the modelâs prediction that the away side would triumph. The model had chosen an away win with a 78% probability, and this call proved correct. The final score of 0-2 matched the most likely result, and the total goals of two fell within the expected range. Every suggested selection from the model hit: Home under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (99.1%), Away +2 handicap (99.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2%), and Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.6%). The modelâs confidence translated into a flawless set of outcomes.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Sheffield Weds winâ Miss
5.1%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.34
Edge
-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
7.00
Betano
6.80
Marathonbet
6.75
Pinnacle
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Drawâ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.37
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.68
Dafabet
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Betano
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Wolves winâ Hit
77.5%
Avg Implied 63.6% · @ 1.48
Edge
+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Dafabet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
✠2. Goal Analysis
Sheffield Weds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.77
0.67
1.33
0.47
2.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.80
0.80
1.10
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.56
1.44
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.75
1.12
1.75
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.60
1.17
1.33
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
@ 1.21-3.8%
Under 1.5
26.3%
@ 4.15+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.35
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.68-8.1%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 2.14+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 2.67-8.8%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.43+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.76
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
30.9%
@ 1.79-21.1%
No
69.1%
@ 1.93+21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
No
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
1.95
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 â
17.7%@ 7.02+11.3%
0-1
15.7%@ 6.89+9.1%
0-3
12.8%@ 9.92+8.3%
0-0
8.2%@ 12.30+4.6%
1-1
7.5%@ 7.62+1.6%
1-2
7.4%@ 7.47+1.4%
0-4
7.0%@ 17.95+4.5%
1-3
5.3%@ 10.79+1.2%
Sheffield Weds goals ↓
Wolves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
16%
18%
13%
7.0%
1
2.5%
7.5%
7.4%
5.3%
2.9%
2
0.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
3
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheffield Weds goals (down), columns = Wolves goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
3.00
Cardiff
2.40
Millwall
2.33
Arsenal
2.17
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Accrington
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Wigan
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Chelsea
1.80
Newcastle
1.80
Wrexham
1.75
Fulham
1.75
Grimsby
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Crystal Palace
1.67
Bristol City
1.50
Coventry
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Stockport
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Everton
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Charlton
1.50
Liverpool
1.50
Mansfield
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
Leeds
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barnet
1.00
Salford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leicester
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Manchester United
1.00
Hull
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bolton
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Sheffield Weds
0.67
Huddersfield
0.67
Burton
0.50
AFC Wimbledon
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Stoke
0.50
Derby
0.50
Newport County
0.50
Rochdale
0.48
York
0.36
Sheffield United
0.00
West Ham
0.00
Blackburn
0.00
Blackpool
0.00
Shrewsbury
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Exeter
0.00
QPR
0.00
Oldham
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Crawley Town
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Watford
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Nottingham Forest
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Luton
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Sheffield Weds is 1.33 points worse than Wolves in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.00).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Brighton
4.00
Hull
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Wolves
2.67
Manchester City
2.33
Wrexham
2.25
Chelsea
2.20
Cardiff
2.00
West Ham
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Barnet
2.00
QPR
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Swansea
2.00
Nottingham Forest
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Brentford
2.00
Newcastle
1.80
Southampton
1.67
Cambridge
1.67
Accrington
1.67
Lincoln
1.67
Crystal Palace
1.67
Stockport
1.50
Grimsby
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Arsenal
1.50
Reading
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Millwall
1.33
Sheffield Weds
1.33
Fulham
1.25
Wycombe
1.25
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Sheffield United
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackburn
1.00
Shrewsbury
1.00
Stevenage
1.00
AFC Wimbledon
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Cheltenham
1.00
Oldham
1.00
Crawley Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Watford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Norwich
1.00
Derby
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Swindon
1.00
Huddersfield
1.00
Peterboro
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Liverpool
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Port Vale
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Rochdale
0.56
Burton
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Oxford
0.50
York
0.42
Blackpool
0.00
Exeter
0.00
Salford
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Stoke
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Luton
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Sheffield Weds is 1.33 goals worse than Wolves in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.67).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Salford
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Manchester City
0.33
Wycombe
0.50
Southampton
0.67
Cambridge
0.67
Port Vale
0.67
Millwall
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Crystal Palace
0.67
Brighton
0.67
Fulham
0.75
Brentford
0.75
Arsenal
0.83
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackpool
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Burton
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Rotherham
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Northampton
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Tottenham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Luton
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Cardiff
1.20
Reading
1.33
Accrington
1.33
Newcastle
1.40
AFC Wimbledon
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Stoke
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Derby
1.50
Newport County
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Sheffield Weds
1.67
Bradford
1.67
Huddersfield
1.67
Wrexham
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Chelsea
1.80
Sheffield United
2.00
Blackburn
2.00
Barnet
2.00
Exeter
2.00
Grimsby
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Watford
2.00
Bournemouth
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Portsmouth
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
West Ham
3.00
Shrewsbury
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Barnsley
3.00
QPR
3.00
Oldham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Nottingham Forest
3.00
Hull
3.00
Oxford
3.00
Crewe
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Rochdale
3.31
Middlesbrough
4.00
York
4.45
Sheffield Weds is 0.33 goals better than Wolves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Leeds
80%
Barnet
77%
Peterboro
72%
Chesterfield
71%
Ipswich
71%
Manchester United
70%
Sunderland
70%
Stoke
66%
Manchester City
66%
Blackburn
65%
Bournemouth
65%
Notts County
64%
Portsmouth
63%
Tranmere
63%
Birmingham
62%
Fulham
62%
Middlesbrough
62%
Hull
61%
Chelsea
60%
Leicester
60%
Liverpool
60%
Stevenage
58%
Oldham
58%
Preston
58%
Brighton
57%
Blackpool
57%
Bristol Rvs
57%
Cardiff
57%
Everton
56%
Coventry
56%
Barnsley
56%
Stockport
55%
West Brom
55%
Nottingham Forest
55%
Tottenham
54%
Arsenal
54%
Aston Villa
54%
Bristol City
54%
Exeter
53%
Newcastle
53%
Bolton
53%
Norwich
52%
Plymouth
52%
Salford
51%
Gillingham
51%
Burnley
51%
Wycombe
50%
Oxford
50%
AFC Wimbledon
50%
Millwall
50%
Doncaster
49%
West Ham
49%
Southampton
49%
Leyton Orient
49%
Swansea
49%
Charlton
48%
Wolves
48%
Lincoln
47%
Reading
46%
Sheffield United
46%
Luton
46%
Wrexham
46%
Derby
45%
Brentford
44%
Grimsby
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Watford
44%
Crewe
44%
Rotherham
44%
Northampton
43%
Burton
42%
Cheltenham
42%
Wigan
42%
Crystal Palace
42%
Sheffield Weds
40%
Crawley Town
39%
Cambridge
37%
Colchester
37%
Accrington
35%
Fleetwood Town
35%
Milton Keynes Dons
35%
Bradford
33%
Huddersfield
32%
Mansfield
32%
QPR
31%
Port Vale
31%
Newport County
30%
Bromley
30%
Swindon
27%
Walsall
26%
Sheffield Weds is 8.3 percentage points worse than Wolves in terms of average possession (40% vs 48%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sheffield Weds or Drawâ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.55
Edge
-14.4%
5%
17%
78%
covers Sheffield Weds + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.73
1xBet
2.73
Betano
2.67
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
Sheffield Weds or Wolvesâ Hit
82.6%
Avg Implied 78.8% · @ 1.19
Edge
+3.8%
5%
17%
78%
covers Sheffield Weds + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Draw or Wolvesâ Hit
94.9%
Avg Implied 84.3% · @ 1.12
Edge
+10.6%
5%
17%
78%
covers Draw + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
34.1%
@ 1.60-24.1%
Under
65.9%
@ 2.22+24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.20
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 3.99-16.8%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.22+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.21
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 11.67-7.2%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
13.50
1xBet
13.50
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Sheffield Weds over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.1%
@ 38.00-99.9%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.6%
@ 1.09+3.6%
Under
11.4%
@ 6.21-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Wolves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.54+3.1%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.38-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
BetVictor
2.40
Wolves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.72+2.5%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.43-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.81
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Wolves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 5.40+0.2%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.13-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
âïž 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sheffield Weds, so a minus line means Sheffield Weds give that many goals of a start and Wolves receive them. At -1, Sheffield Weds must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sheffield Weds win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sheffield Weds)Actual: Wolves
Sheffield Weds -2
0.1%
@ 50.00-1.8%
Draw -2
0.9%
@ 18.67-4.2%
Wolves +2
99.0%
@ 1.02+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
32.00
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Superbet
15.00
Away
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Handicap -1 (Sheffield Weds)Actual: Wolves
Sheffield Weds -1
1.0%
@ 12.87-5.9%
Draw -1
4.1%
@ 6.88-8.9%
Wolves +1
94.9%
@ 1.11+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Away
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Handicap +1 (Sheffield Weds)Actual: Wolves
Sheffield Weds +1
22.5%
@ 2.50-13.5%
Draw +1
24.2%
@ 3.52-1.3%
Wolves -1
53.3%
@ 2.34+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.73
Superbet
2.52
10Bet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.38
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Away
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Handicap +2 (Sheffield Weds)Actual: Draw
Sheffield Weds +2
46.7%
@ 1.54-11.7%
Draw +2
23.7%
@ 4.37+3.1%
Wolves -2
29.6%
@ 4.29+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.10
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.73
0.27
0.27
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.20
0.60
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.65
0.30
0.10
0.30
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.75
0.62
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.83
0.12
0.62
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.31+0.7%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.31-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 2.45-1.3%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.51+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.48
Under
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.53
BetVictor
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.75-3.3%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
William Hil
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.4%
@ 2.81+4.4%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.39-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 10.25-2.6%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 45.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.58-4.4%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.28+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.22
Wolves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
17.9%
@ 3.69-7.2%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.24+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.55
Under
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Wolves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 8.97-6.1%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.20
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.40
1.07
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.20
1.20
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.35
1.15
0.50
1.00
0.20
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.81
0.81
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.92
1.00
1.12
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.9%
@ 1.19+3.2%
Under 0.5
18.1%
@ 4.39-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.0%
@ 1.93+7.5%
Under 1.5
44.0%
@ 1.82-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 3.88-0.8%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.23+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.4%
@ 2.31-0.7%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.55+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 8.03-1.6%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 20.75-2.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Wolves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
68.2%
@ 1.38+1.1%
Under
31.8%
@ 2.81-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Wolves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.6%
@ 2.76+0.1%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.39-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Wolves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 6.57-3.0%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
99.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+7.2%
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
99.0%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+6.0%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.7%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
+6.1%
â Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+5.4%
â Hit
Draw or Away
94.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+10.6%
â Hit
Away +1 handicap
94.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
+14.8%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
93.4%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+16.8%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+1.6%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+3.0%
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+3.6%
â Hit
Under 4.5
87.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+6.9%
â Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+3.3%
â Hit
Home or Away
82.6%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
+3.8%
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
82.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-0.2%
â Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+7.2%
â Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
+3.2%
â Miss
Away win
77.5%
1.48
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Dafabet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
+13.9%
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.23
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.8%
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
+8.8%
â Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
1.21
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-3.8%
â Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
+0.7%
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
1.30
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-0.0%
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's squad is €252m less valuable than Wolves's (€21m vs €273m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Sheffield Weds's attack is €71m less valuable than Wolves's (€7m vs €79m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Sheffield Weds's midfield is €73m less valuable than Wolves's (€6m vs €79m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's defence is €108m less valuable than Wolves's (€8m vs €116m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston