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Sheriff II vs FCM Ungheni Result & Analysis

Date: 14/03/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 5-2
Sheriff II
Sheriff II
Vs
73%
15%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sheriff II win✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sheriff IISheriff II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-921W91W20W20W40W11D20W21W30W11DA·SAX27/09H·VUL04/10H·SPE18/10H·FĂL25/10H·GAG01/11H·SAX08/11A·VUL22/11A·SPE29/11A·FĂL07/12A·GAG07/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.030.673.800.532.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.000.732.430.711.250.75
vs Weaker (19)3.630.635.000.382.640.82
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-534L21W42W13L43W23L32W04L14L24LH·VIC29/09H·SPE04/10H·FC 18/10H·OLI26/10H·ISK01/11H·VIC08/11A·SPE23/11H·FC 30/11A·OLI07/12H·OLI08/03
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.802.471.802.401.802.53
vs Stronger (30)1.802.471.802.401.802.53
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%2%06%114%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.8%
Under 2.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.2%
3-0
7.1%
1-1
6.2%
4-1
6.1%
4-0
5.3%
2-2
4.8%
Sheriff II goals ↓
FCM Ungheni goals →
01234
02.2%1.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
14.3%6.2%3.2%1.2%0.4%
27.2%8.3%4.8%1.8%0.5%
37.1%8.2%4.7%1.8%0.5%
45.3%6.1%3.5%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff II goals (down), columns = FCM Ungheni goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sheriff II
2.68
Victoria Bardar
2.27
Saxan
1.94
FC Stăuceni
1.73
FCM Ungheni
1.41
Făleşti
1.40
Iskra
1.36
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.27
Speranis Nisporeni
1.18
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Speranța Drochia
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători
0.50
Floreşti
0.00
Sheriff II is 1.27 points better than FCM Ungheni in terms of average points per game (2.68 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Victoria Bardar
3.40
Saxan
3.12
Sheriff II
2.95
FC Stăuceni
2.33
FCM Ungheni
2.14
Olimp Comrat
1.86
Iskra
1.55
Speranța Drochia
1.45
Făleşti
1.40
Speranis Nisporeni
1.32
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.32
Vulturii Cutezători
1.05
Floreşti
0.00
Sheriff II is 0.82 goals better than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals scored per game (2.95 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff II
0.59
Saxan
1.12
Speranis Nisporeni
1.27
Victoria Bardar
1.40
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.45
FC Stăuceni
1.67
Iskra
1.82
Făleşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
2.23
Speranța Drochia
2.59
Vulturii Cutezători
2.73
Olimp Comrat
2.91
Floreşti
19.00
Sheriff II is 1.64 goals better than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals conceded per game (0.59 vs 2.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sheriff IISheriff II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W00D01L10W10W10W11D10W00DH·SPE30/08A·SAX27/09H·SPE18/10H·FĂL25/10H·GAG01/11H·SAX08/11A·VUL22/11A·SPE29/11A·FĂL07/12A·GAG07/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.231.000.291.170.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.330.171.750.250.500.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.290.000.331.500.25
Clean sheet %77% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W11D11D13L32W21W00D12L02LA·SPE24/08A·FC 31/08H·VIC29/09H·FC 18/10H·OLI26/10H·ISK01/11A·SPE23/11H·FC 30/11A·OLI07/12H·OLI08/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.361.271.001.501.801.00
vs Stronger (11)1.361.271.001.501.801.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %18% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sheriff IISheriff II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W11D20W30W01L10W10W20W11DA·VUL23/08H·SPE30/08A·SAX27/09H·SPE18/10H·GAG01/11H·SAX08/11A·VUL22/11A·SPE29/11A·FĂL07/12A·GAG07/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.501.330.501.170.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.170.831.250.751.001.00
vs Weaker (6)1.330.171.500.001.250.25
Clean sheet %58% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L23L31W00D11D11D04L02L22DA·SPE24/08A·FC 31/08H·VIC29/09H·FC 18/10H·OLI26/10H·ISK01/11A·SPE23/11H·FC 30/11A·OLI07/12H·OLI08/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.821.641.331.830.201.40
vs Stronger (11)0.821.641.331.830.201.40
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %9% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Home win73.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
SI wins
1
Draws
0
FU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sheriff II vs FCM Ungheni · H/A from SI
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/24HSI Vs FCM Ungheni6-1
18/03/23HSI Vs FCM Ungheni4-0
08/10/22AFCM Ungheni Vs SI1-1
27/08/22HSI Vs FCM Ungheni2-1

Sheriff IISheriff II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25AGagauziya-Oguzsport Vs SI1-1
07/12/24AFăleşti Vs SI0-3
29/11/24ASperanis Nisporeni Vs SI1-2
22/11/24AVulturii Cutezători Vs SI0-2
08/11/24HSI Vs Saxan1-1
01/11/24HSI Vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport4-0
25/10/24HSI Vs Făleşti2-0
18/10/24HSI Vs Speranis Nisporeni2-0
04/10/24HSI Vs Vulturii Cutezători9-1
27/09/24ASaxan Vs SI1-2

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HFU Vs Olimp Comrat2-4
07/12/24AOlimp Comrat Vs FU4-1
30/11/24HFU Vs FC Stăuceni0-4
23/11/24ASperanța Drochia Vs FU2-3
08/11/24HFU Vs Victoria Bardar2-3
01/11/24HFU Vs Iskra4-3
26/10/24HFU Vs Olimp Comrat1-3
18/10/24HFU Vs FC Stăuceni4-2
04/10/24HFU Vs Speranța Drochia2-1
29/09/24HFU Vs Victoria Bardar3-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sheriff II
Sheriff II
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD2.40
HomeWWWWD2.65
AwayWWWWD2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%85%67%
AVG goals3.584.043.08
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %42%54%29%
Scored2.943.462.38
Conceded0.640.580.71
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet50%50%50%
Corners---
Cards---
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.27
HomeLWLLL1.38
AwayWWWWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%43%35%
AVG goals4.003.814.20
Over 1.5 %90%86%95%
Over 2.5 %80%76%85%
Over 3.5 %56%52%60%
Scored1.801.811.80
Conceded2.202.002.40
BTTS61%57%65%
Clean Sheet15%14%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff IISheriff II2259
86%
2.7
6513+52
3.5
82%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.6
-
2Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1534
73%
2.3
5121+30
4.8
87%
87%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.41.4
-
3SaxanSaxan1631
56%
1.9
5018+32
4.2
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.11.1
-
4FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni2231
41%
1.4
4749-2
4.4
91%
82%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.2
-
5IskraIskra2230
36%
1.4
3440-6
3.4
77%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
6Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport2228
32%
1.3
2932-3
2.8
82%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
7FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1526
53%
1.7
3525+10
4.0
93%
67%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.7
-
8Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni2226
32%
1.2
2928+1
2.6
77%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
9Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat2225
32%
1.1
4164-23
4.8
95%
91%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.9
-
10FăleştiFăleşti1521
47%
1.4
2131-10
3.5
100%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
11Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia2215
18%
0.7
3257-25
4.0
91%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
12Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători2211
14%
0.5
2360-37
3.8
82%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
13FloreştiFloreşti10
0%
0.0
019-19
19.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.019.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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