Sheriff Tiraspol are the clear favourite, the model giving them an 84 % chance of victory and a 13 % draw probability, while CSF Bălți only has a 4 % chance of winning. The prediction favours a 2-0home win, the most likely scoreline with a 15.7 % probability, and the average expected goals sit at 3.1, with a 22 % chance of exactly three goals. Sheriff’s home form is dominant, scoring 2.11 and conceding only 0.33 against weaker opposition, whereas CSF Bălți’s away numbers are poor, 0.55 scored and 1.82 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s selections include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.9 %, home +2 handicap at 99.2 %, away under 2.5 goals at 98.9 %, under 7.5 at 98.5 %, home or draw at 96.3 %, home +1 handicap at 96.3 %, under 6.5 at 96.0 %, and home over 0.5 goals at 93.1 %. Sheriff’s recent win over Politehnica UTM and CSF Bălți’s recent 0-4 loss to Zimbru underline the home side’s advantage and the away side’s struggle on the road.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol win
85.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win
3.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.40
1.20
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.47
2.25
0.38
1.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.10
0.86
2.00
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
2.10
0.60
2.20
0.45
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
33.0%
No
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.8%
3-0
14.5%
1-0
11.0%
4-0
9.9%
2-1
6.8%
3-1
6.2%
5-0
5.5%
1-1
5.4%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
11%
5.4%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
2
16%
6.8%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
3
14%
6.2%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
4
9.9%
4.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.78 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.56 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sheriff Tiraspol is 2.33 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 3.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sheriff Tiraspol or Draw
96.8%
Avg Implied -
85%
12%
3%
covers Sheriff Tiraspol + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol or CSF Bălți
88.3%
Avg Implied -
85%
12%
3%
covers Sheriff Tiraspol + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSF Bălți
14.9%
Avg Implied -
85%
12%
3%
covers Draw + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 3.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sheriff Tiraspol, so a minus line means Sheriff Tiraspol give that many goals of a start and CSF Bălți receive them. At -1, Sheriff Tiraspol must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sheriff Tiraspol win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol -2
42.9%
Draw -2
22.9%
CSF Bălți +2
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol -1
65.8%
Draw -1
19.2%
CSF Bălți +1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol +1
96.8%
Draw +1
2.6%
CSF Bălți -1
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol +2
99.4%
Draw +2
0.6%
CSF Bălți -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.12
0.38
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.21
0.93
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.27
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.06
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.40
1.20
0.18
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €5m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€6m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's attack is €2m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's midfield is €1m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's defence is €2m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€3m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți