Sheriff Tiraspol are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 72% chance of victory and a 71.5% probability for a home win. Their recent 1-2 loss to Zimbru is already reflected in the 72% win odds, while Milsami Orhei, struggling at home with a 0.67 average score and 1.67 conceded against stronger opposition, faces a 9% chance of triumph. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 14.4%. Sheriff’s home form shows an average of 2.11 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded against weaker teams, whereas Milsami’s away record is 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded versus stronger opponents. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (77.1%) and Under 3.5 (70.0%). The draw probability sits at 20%, and the away win probability at 9%. All figures are presented exactly as the model provides.
Results analysis
The draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, did not materialise. Sheriff Tiraspol, coming off a defeat, had the edge with a 72% chance of triumph, yet the match finished 1-1, a result the model missed. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 1.5, with a 77.1% probability, hit; Home win, at 71.5%, missed; and Under 3.5, at 70.0%, hit. The final score of 1-1 produced a draw, contradicting the model’s pick. Sheriff’s recent form of LWDLW and Milsami’s DWLDD both suggest a tighter contest than expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol win✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
8.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.67
0.72
1.25
1.58
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.27
1.12
0.75
0.86
1.86
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
0.54
2.11
0.44
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.20
1.62
0.56
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.60
0.60
0.40
1.20
2.80
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.75
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.4%
1-0
12.6%
3-0
10.3%
1-1 ✓
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-0
5.5%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
13%
9.3%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
10%
6.4%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
5.5%
3.4%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.58 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
Olimp Comrat
1.00
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.21 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Petrocub
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Iskra
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.58 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.83
0.28
0.42
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.38
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.15
0.89
0.11
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.81
0.12
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.20
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.21
1.38
0.12
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.83
0.44
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.38
0.38
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.38
1.22
0.33
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.81
0.44
0.86
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.79
1.12
0.62
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €3m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's attack is €2m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Saxan
CSF Bălți
FC Stăuceni
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Făleşti
Iskra
Floreşti
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FCM Ungheni
Olimp Comrat