Sheriff Tiraspol enter the match as clear favourites, with the model rating a home win at 63%. Their recent 4-0 triumph over Politehnica UTM shows they are still on a winning streak, and the data shows they average 2.25 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded at home against weaker opposition. Milsami Orhei, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, averaging just one goal scored and conceding two against stronger opponents, and their last win over Petrocub was a narrow 1-0. The model therefore predicts a 63% chance of a home victory, a 22% draw and a 15% away win, with the most likely result being a 2-0 scoreline at 10.6%. The expected total goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, at 23%. The single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.7% probability. The match is set for a decisive Sheriff win, reflecting their dominance at home and Milsami’s away difficulties.
Results analysis
The unexpected draw stunned the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, Sheriff Tiraspol, failed to convert their 63% chance of victory into a win, ending the game at 0-0. The model’s pick was therefore incorrect. The match also saw the model’s sole suggested pick, Over 1.5, miss its 81.7% probability. Sheriff had been coming off a win and had a strong home form, yet they could not break Milsami’s solid away defence, which had been resilient against stronger opponents. The final result of a draw contradicted the model’s expectation of a home win and a 2-goal total, underscoring the unpredictability of the Super Liga.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol win✗ Miss
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
1.80
0.87
1.47
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.40
1.60
0.60
1.40
2.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.41
2.25
0.50
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.12
1.06
1.36
1.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
2.33
0.83
1.83
0.50
2.83
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.79
1.50
0.75
2.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0 ✓
5.7%
2-2
4.7%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.5%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.1%
10%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
7.4%
7.0%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.7%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Zimbru
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.38
Politehnica UTM
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.12
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.25
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.12 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.62
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Politehnica UTM
1.88
Petrocub
1.75
Dacia-Buiucani
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.62
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.25 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.75
Petrocub
1.12
Zimbru
1.12
Sireți
1.25
Politehnica UTM
1.50
Dacia-Buiucani
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.75
CSF Bălți
3.25
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.00 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.13
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
1.50
0.50
0.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
0.62
0.25
1.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.22
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.62
0.69
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.50
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.83
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €3m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol's attack is €2m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Sireți
CSF Bălți