Sheriff Tiraspol are the clear favourite, their 80% chance of victory reflecting a dominant home form against weaker opposition, averaging 2.25 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded. The model picks a home win, with a 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome at 16% probability. Expected total goals sit at 2.9, yet the most probable total is two goals, 24% of the time. Sheriff’s recent loss to Zimbru does little to dent their confidence, while Sirebi, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The suggested picks include an Away under 3.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Home +2 handicap at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Home or Draw at 95.0%, Home +1 handicap at 95.0%, and Under 5.5 at 92.5%. The match-result probabilities are 80% for a home win, 15% for a draw, and 5% for an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol win
76.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți win
6.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.40
1.20
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.47
2.25
0.38
1.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.24
0.82
1.92
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
2.23
1.00
2.50
0.75
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.29
2.43
1.14
2.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.9%
No
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.9%
1-0
13.4%
3-0
11.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-1
8.1%
0-0
7.0%
4-0
6.7%
3-1
6.2%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
1
13%
8.1%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
8.2%
2.1%
0.4%
0.0%
3
12%
6.2%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
6.7%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.22 points better than Sireți in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sheriff Tiraspol is 1.44 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.22 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sheriff Tiraspol or Draw
93.7%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
6%
covers Sheriff Tiraspol + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol or Sireți
82.5%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
6%
covers Sheriff Tiraspol + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sireți
23.7%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
6%
covers Draw + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
Under
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 3.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sheriff Tiraspol, so a minus line means Sheriff Tiraspol give that many goals of a start and Sireți receive them. At -1, Sheriff Tiraspol must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sheriff Tiraspol win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol -2
29.8%
Draw -2
23.0%
Sireți +2
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol -1
52.9%
Draw -1
23.4%
Sireți +1
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol +1
93.7%
Draw +1
4.8%
Sireți -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Sheriff Tiraspol +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.2%
Sireți -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.12
0.38
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.94
0.29
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.50
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.06
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.29
0.53
1.00
0.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
0.62
1.50
0.38
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
1.29
0.86
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €5m more valuable than Sireți's (€6m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's attack is €2m more valuable than Sireți's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Sireți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sheriff Tiraspol's defence is €3m more valuable than Sireți's (€3m vs €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți