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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru Result & Analysis

Date: 12/07/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 4-2
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Vs
47%
30%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zimbru
Zimbru
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Sheriff Tiraspol a 47% win probability against Zimbru in the Moldova: Super Liga on 2026-07-12, with 30% for the draw and 24% for Zimbru. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Sheriff Tiraspol finished 4-2 against Zimbru (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 30% draw and 24% away win. Missed: Under 3.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sheriff Tiraspol win✓ Hit
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W22D31W20W01L21W10W00D00DH·PET14/03H·DAC20/03A·ZIM05/04H·MIL11/04H·CSF18/04A·PET26/04A·DAC03/05H·ZIM10/05A·MIL17/05A·POL04/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.931.790.641.381.19
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (10)1.101.701.200.801.002.60
vs Weaker (18)1.940.392.250.501.700.30
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZimbruZimbru

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W20W22D03L31W30W41W01L11D30WH·DAC14/03A·CSF21/03H·SHE05/04A·PET11/04H·MIL18/04A·DAC25/04H·CSF02/05A·SHE10/05H·PET17/05H·CSF05/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.002.471.001.691.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)1.380.921.570.861.171.00
vs Weaker (15)3.001.003.441.002.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.5%
Sheriff Tiraspol goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
01234
011%7.7%4.2%1.3%0.3%
112%14%6.0%1.9%0.4%
29.5%8.9%4.2%1.3%0.3%
34.5%4.2%2.0%0.6%0.1%
41.6%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.14
Zimbru
1.86
Dacia-Buiucani
1.71
Petrocub
1.57
Politehnica UTM
1.57
Milsami Orhei
0.86
Sireți
0.71
CSF Bălți
0.29
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.29 points better than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.43
Politehnica UTM
2.14
Petrocub
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.57
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.86
CSF Bălți
0.71
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.43 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.86
Petrocub
1.14
Politehnica UTM
1.14
Zimbru
1.29
Sireți
1.43
Dacia-Buiucani
1.71
Milsami Orhei
2.00
CSF Bălți
3.14
Sheriff Tiraspol is 0.43 goals better than Zimbru in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
Sheriff Tiraspol's squad is €2m more valuable than Zimbru's (€6m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
Sheriff Tiraspol's defence is €2m more valuable than Zimbru's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru · H/A from ST
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HST Vs Zimbru1-0
05/04/26AZimbru Vs ST2-2
23/11/25HST Vs Zimbru0-1
21/09/25AZimbru Vs ST2-0
27/07/25HST Vs Zimbru2-3
26/04/25AZimbru Vs ST1-1
15/03/25HST Vs Zimbru0-0
27/10/24HST Vs Zimbru4-2

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26APolitehnica UTM Vs ST0-0
17/05/26AMilsami Orhei Vs ST0-0
10/05/26HST Vs Zimbru1-0
03/05/26ADacia-Buiucani Vs ST1-2
26/04/26APetrocub Vs ST1-0
18/04/26HST Vs CSF Bălți2-0
11/04/26HST Vs Milsami Orhei3-1
05/04/26AZimbru Vs ST2-2
20/03/26HST Vs Dacia-Buiucani2-0
14/03/26HST Vs Petrocub1-0

ZimbruZimbru

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/07/26HZIM Vs CSF Bălți3-0
17/05/26HZIM Vs Petrocub1-1
10/05/26ASheriff Tiraspol Vs ZIM1-0
02/05/26HZIM Vs CSF Bălți4-1
25/04/26ADacia-Buiucani Vs ZIM0-3
18/04/26HZIM Vs Milsami Orhei3-1
11/04/26APetrocub Vs ZIM3-0
05/04/26HZIM Vs Sheriff Tiraspol2-2
21/03/26ACSF Bălți Vs ZIM0-2
14/03/26HZIM Vs Dacia-Buiucani3-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.86
HomeWWWWW2.15
AwayDLWDD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%65%42%
AVG goals2.622.882.33
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %30%38%21%
Scored1.802.231.33
Conceded0.820.651.00
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet52%58%46%
Corners11.00-11.00
Cards2.403.002.00
Zimbru
Zimbru
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.96
HomeDWWDW2.19
AwayDWLWL1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%65%50%
AVG goals3.203.422.96
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %42%50%33%
Scored2.162.501.79
Conceded1.040.921.17
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet40%38%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol715
57%
2.1
146+8
2.9
57%
43%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.00.9
-
2ZimbruZimbru713
57%
1.9
179+8
3.7
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.41.3
-
3Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani712
57%
1.7
1112-1
3.3
71%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
4Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM711
43%
1.6
158+7
3.3
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5PetrocubPetrocub711
43%
1.6
148+6
3.1
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.1
-
6Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei76
14%
0.9
714-7
3.0
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.02.0
-
7SirețiSireți75
0%
0.7
610-4
2.3
86%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
8CSF BălțiCSF Bălți72
0%
0.3
522-17
3.9
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.1
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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