Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk Result & Analysis

Shinnik Yaroslavl are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 57% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 17% for Ska-Khabarovsk to win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3% probability. Shinnik, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.54 goals scored and 0.62 conceded, while Ska-Khabarovsk, on the road, averages 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include an 88.4% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 74.9% chance of over 3.5 cards, a 74.2% chance of over 1.5 goals (miss), and a 73.8% chance of under 3.5 goals (hit). Shinnik’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run, coming off a 0-0 stalemate with Enisey, whereas Ska-Khabarovsk has endured two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Torpedo Moskva. This context suggests a cautious, low-scoring affair dominated by Shinnik’s home advantage.

The match finished 1-0 to Shinnik Yaroslavl, extending their recent run of two draws and a win. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 57% probability, and that call was correct. The predicted most likely total was two goals, yet only one was scored. For the over/under selections, the Over 1.5 goal pick at 74.2% missed, while the Under 3.5 goal pick at 73.8% hit. Shinnik’s home form shows a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.62 goals on average, while Ska-Khabarovsk’s away form has them conceding 1.27. Overall, the model’s main pick was accurate, but its over-under suggestions were mixed.