Shirak II’s recent form shows a win-draw-loss pattern, yet the model still rates an away win as the clear favourite, reflecting BKMA II’s strong away scoring average of 2.18 goals per game versus a weaker opponent and a low conceding rate of 1.09. The probability of a home win sits at 16%, a draw at 21%, and an away win at 63%. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for BKMA II, with a 9.8% chance. Shirak II scores an average of 0.83 goals at home against stronger teams while conceding 2.67, whereas BKMA II scores 2.18 away and concedes only 1.09. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 6.5 (95.1%), Away +2 handicap (94.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.1%), Under 5.5 (88.7%), and Over 1.5 (84.6%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak II win
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA II win
62.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.97
1.21
2.07
1.19
3.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
4.07
0.83
2.67
0.78
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.75
1.67
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
0.87
3.40
0.60
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (24)
2.96
0.83
3.62
0.62
2.18
1.09
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
7.6%
1-3
7.3%
0-3
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
4.7%
Shirak II goals ↓
BKMA II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
7.6%
9.4%
6.9%
3.8%
1
3.1%
9.8%
9.8%
7.3%
4.0%
2
2.1%
4.7%
5.2%
3.8%
2.1%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak II goals (down), columns = BKMA II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Shirak II is 1.77 points worse than BKMA II in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Shirak II is 1.43 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Shirak II is 1.93 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.97 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shirak II or Draw
37.1%
Avg Implied -
16%
21%
63%
covers Shirak II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak II or BKMA II
78.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
21%
63%
covers Shirak II + BKMA II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BKMA II
84.1%
Avg Implied -
16%
21%
63%
covers Draw + BKMA II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shirak II over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5
Over
89.1%
Under
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 3.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shirak II, so a minus line means Shirak II give that many goals of a start and BKMA II receive them. At -1, Shirak II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shirak II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shirak II)
Shirak II -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.3%
BKMA II +2
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shirak II)
Shirak II -1
5.9%
Draw -1
10.0%
BKMA II +1
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shirak II)
Shirak II +1
37.1%
Draw +1
22.1%
BKMA II -1
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shirak II)
Shirak II +2
59.1%
Draw +2
19.1%
BKMA II -2
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.53
0.57
0.86
0.62
2.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
2.27
0.50
1.17
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.33
1.53
0.20
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.17
0.33
1.62
0.23
0.64
0.45
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.64
1.21
0.56
1.62
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.80
0.33
1.50
0.44
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.53
1.87
0.40
1.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
1.79
0.50
2.00
0.38
1.55
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Shirak II and BKMA II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Shirak II and BKMA II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Shirak II and BKMA II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Shirak II and BKMA II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II