Shirak II’s recent home form shows a struggling attack, averaging only 0.83 goals per game while conceding 2.5 against stronger opponents. Hayq, on the other hand, has been prolific away, scoring 2.09 goals per match and keeping just 0.82 on the road to weaker teams. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 60 % probability, followed by a 22 % chance of a draw and 18 % for a home victory. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4 % probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Away +2 handicap (93.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.4 %), Under 5.5 (89.8 %), Away over 0.5 goals (87.6 %), and Away under 3.5 goals (84.1 %). Hayq’s four-game winning streak and recent 4-3 victory over Ararat-Armenia II suggest they will continue to dominate this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak II win
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hayq win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.97
1.21
2.07
1.19
3.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
4.07
0.83
2.67
0.78
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.75
1.67
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hayq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.80
2.20
0.73
1.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.30
0.70
2.70
0.60
1.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.1%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
2-1
5.1%
Shirak II goals ↓
Hayq goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
7.8%
9.1%
6.4%
3.3%
1
3.6%
10%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.5%
5.1%
5.4%
3.7%
2.0%
3
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak II goals (down), columns = Hayq goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Shirak II is 1.67 points worse than Hayq in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Shirak II is 0.83 goals worse than Hayq in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Shirak II is 2.17 goals worse than Hayq in terms of goals conceded per game (2.97 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shirak II or Draw
40.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Shirak II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak II or Hayq
77.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Shirak II + Hayq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hayq
82.0%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Draw + Hayq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shirak II over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 0.5
Over
87.6%
Under
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 3.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shirak II, so a minus line means Shirak II give that many goals of a start and Hayq receive them. At -1, Shirak II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shirak II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shirak II)
Shirak II -2
2.0%
Draw -2
4.9%
Hayq +2
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shirak II)
Shirak II -1
6.9%
Draw -1
11.1%
Hayq +1
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shirak II)
Shirak II +1
40.4%
Draw +1
22.2%
Hayq -1
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shirak II)
Shirak II +2
62.7%
Draw +2
18.3%
Hayq -2
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.53
0.57
0.86
0.62
2.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
2.27
0.50
1.17
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hayq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.23
1.33
0.13
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
0.60
0.20
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.20
1.70
0.10
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.7%
Under 2.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.64
1.21
0.56
1.62
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.80
0.33
1.50
0.44
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hayq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.3%
Under 0.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.8%
Under 1.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.5%
Under 2.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Shirak II and Hayq have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Hayq have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Hayq have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Shirak II and Hayq have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat II