Shirak II are tipped to lift a home win, the model’s favourite result, with a 48% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 24% for an away win. The average goal count sits at 2.6, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 26% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Shirak’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Lernayin Artsakh, on the road, average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 74.2% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.9%. The home side’s recent five matches read WDLLD, coming off a win against Ararat II, while the visitors have a WLWLL run, fresh from a 5-0 triumph over Banants II. These figures set the stage for a tight contest that could see the home side edge the visitors.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Lernayin Artsakh snatching a 1-4 victory over Shirak II, a result that shattered the model’s pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win at 48%, but the outcome was an away triumph, so its call was wrong. The final score of 1-4 confirmed the away win. The model’s other selections also fell short: the Under 3.5 total, projected at 74.2%, missed, while the Over 1.5, at 73.9%, hit. Both teams were coming off wins, with Shirak’s recent form noted as a win, yet the match delivered a stark reversal of expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak II win✗ Miss
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.21
0.93
1.19
1.56
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.53
0.88
1.25
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.25
1.60
0.60
0.86
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.90
0.47
2.20
0.27
1.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
2.24
0.60
2.50
0.00
1.86
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.33
0.20
1.60
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
4.8%
Shirak II goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
6.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.8%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak II goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gandzasar
2.64
BKMA II
2.25
Syunik
2.22
Lernayin Artsakh
2.07
Banants II
1.50
Andranik
1.46
Noah II
1.39
Ararat-Armenia II
1.39
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.18
Ararat II
1.14
Pyunik II
1.07
Mika
0.61
Onor
0.59
Nikarm
0.43
Shirak II is 0.89 points worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.89
Gandzasar
2.46
Lernayin Artsakh
2.21
Syunik
2.19
Noah II
1.89
Ararat II
1.86
Banants II
1.82
Pyunik II
1.79
Ararat-Armenia II
1.71
Alashkert II
1.64
Shirak II
1.46
Andranik
1.32
Nikarm
0.96
Onor
0.85
Mika
0.75
Shirak II is 0.75 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 2.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gandzasar
0.61
Syunik
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.96
BKMA II
1.11
Banants II
1.21
Noah II
1.36
Andranik
1.46
Ararat-Armenia II
1.46
Ararat II
1.68
Alashkert II
1.75
Shirak II
1.79
Pyunik II
2.04
Mika
2.14
Onor
3.04
Nikarm
4.36
Shirak II is 0.82 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.58
0.57
0.71
0.42
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
2.00
0.00
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.80
0.27
1.00
0.13
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
0.94
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.05
1.14
1.00
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
0.90
1.20
0.80
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.25
1.00
2.00
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
1.10
0.20
1.20
0.13
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.12
1.29
0.20
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.67
0.20
0.60
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gandzasar
BKMA II
Syunik
Banants II
Andranik
Noah II
Ararat-Armenia II
Alashkert II
Ararat II
Pyunik II
Mika
Onor
Nikarm