Shirak II’s recent 2-1 win over Ararat II has lifted their confidence, yet the model still favours an away win for Lernayin Artsakh, who have struggled in recent defeats. The projected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2, a 8.6% probability. Home form shows Shirak II scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding 1.22 against similar opposition, while Lernayin Artsakh, playing away, averages 2.29 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The match-result probabilities are 28% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 50% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 90.3% chance, Over 2.5 at 73.7%, and BTTS Yes at 72.3%. All selections are presented with their exact probabilities, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Lernayin Artsakh, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the pundits. The model had given the away side a 50% chance of triumph, but the result proved otherwise. The game’s final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely scoreline, yet the overall outcome was a draw, not a win for the favoured team. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 90.3% probability, Over 2.5 missed at 73.7%, and BTTS Yes succeeded at 72.3%. The home side, Shirak II, had come off a win and the away side, Lernayin Artsakh, had returned from a defeat, setting the stage for an unexpected stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak II win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.87
1.94
1.81
1.71
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.50
2.50
1.67
3.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.56
2.11
1.22
2.14
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
1.10
3.47
0.73
2.27
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
1.64
1.18
1.75
1.25
1.57
1.14
vs Similar (16)
3.38
1.25
4.22
0.67
2.29
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.00
3.50
0.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.3%
Under 1.5
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.3%
No
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.6%
1-1 ✓
8.5%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
5.3%
2-3
5.1%
0-1
4.0%
Shirak II goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
4.0%
5.3%
3.9%
2.1%
1
2.7%
8.5%
8.6%
6.3%
3.5%
2
2.9%
6.3%
7.0%
5.1%
2.8%
3
1.5%
3.4%
3.8%
2.8%
1.5%
4
0.6%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak II goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.62
Syunik
2.54
Noah II
1.92
Lernayin Artsakh
1.75
Banants II
1.58
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.42
Shirak II
1.33
Ararat II
1.21
Bentonit Ijevan
1.00
Ararat-Armenia II
0.79
Mika
0.67
Nikarm
0.04
Shirak II is 0.42 points worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
3.21
Syunik
2.67
Lernayin Artsakh
2.50
Banants II
1.96
Noah II
1.96
Pyunik II
1.96
Ararat II
1.83
Shirak II
1.79
Andranik
1.71
Bentonit Ijevan
1.58
Ararat-Armenia II
1.25
Mika
1.04
Nikarm
0.71
Shirak II is 0.71 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Syunik
0.54
BKMA II
0.71
Noah II
1.21
Banants II
1.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.42
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.67
Shirak II
1.96
Ararat II
2.00
Bentonit Ijevan
2.21
Ararat-Armenia II
2.29
Mika
2.96
Nikarm
4.29
Shirak II is 0.54 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.96 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.93
0.86
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.36
0.57
1.57
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.36
1.17
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.06
0.31
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.45
0.60
0.60
0.83
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.75
1.22
0.22
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.14
0.79
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.14
0.86
1.14
1.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.14
1.67
0.50
1.38
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.47
1.94
0.31
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (16)
2.06
0.50
2.56
0.33
1.43
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Shirak II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BKMA II
Syunik
Noah II
Banants II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Ararat II
Bentonit Ijevan
Ararat-Armenia II
Mika
Nikarm