Shrewsbury face Salford in a match the model deems most likely to end with an away win. The odds favour the visitors, with a 45% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Shrewsbury win. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 14% probability.
At home Shrewsbury have struggled against stronger opposition, scoring only 0.5 goals per game while conceding 1.0. Away, Salford have been more prolific, netting 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5 against weaker teams.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%, edge 3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%, edge 4%), Under 5.5 (96.7%, edge 3%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.2%, edge 4%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Salford, was expected to win with a 45% probability, but Shrewsbury defied expectations, securing a 1-0 home victory. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave Shrewsbury a win that extends their recent form, their last five results reading WLLLD with the latest win over Salford. The model’s prediction of an away win proved incorrect. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.0%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.7%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%) hit. The match finished with a single goal, confirming the low-scoring nature predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shrewsbury win✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.67
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.55
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Salford win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 47.8% · @ 1.94
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.07
Unibet
1.98
Dafabet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Superbet
1.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.70
1.00
1.38
0.71
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
3.25
1.00
0.00
1.67
4.33
vs Similar (26)
0.73
1.46
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Salford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.27
0.93
1.00
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.18
1.18
1.27
0.93
1.08
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.30-2.2%
Under 1.5
30.7%
@ 3.27+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.39
Unibet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 1.98-5.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.79+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betfair
2.00
SBO
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.48-5.7%
Under 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.27+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
@ 1.81-3.5%
No
52.3%
@ 1.90+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
No
BetVictor
1.93
Unibet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.17+6.8%
0-1
11.9%@ 6.52+5.1%
0-0
10.8%@ 9.23+6.0%
0-2
9.1%@ 8.52+3.9%
1-2
8.8%@ 7.80+3.1%
1-0 ✓
7.9%@ 9.55+3.3%
2-1
6.2%@ 11.61+2.3%
2-0
4.4%@ 17.63+1.9%
Shrewsbury goals ↓
Salford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.1%
4.2%
1.5%
1
7.9%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.4%
6.2%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shrewsbury goals (down), columns = Salford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Shrewsbury is 0.65 points worse than Salford in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Shrewsbury is 0.39 goals worse than Salford in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Shrewsbury is 0.34 goals worse than Salford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Shrewsbury is 6.4 percentage points worse than Salford in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shrewsbury
For 4.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Salford
For 5.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 15.1 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.5
7.8
4.3
4.0
4.5
22.7
22.0
23.2
vs Stronger (8)
7.4
9.3
6.2
3.8
3.0
4.2
22.5
22.7
22.4
vs Similar (41)
8.6
9.6
7.7
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.4
21.9
22.9
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
-
17.0
14.0
-
14.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
36%
50%
25%
56%
50%
61%
60%
64%
57%
% under line
64%
50%
75%
44%
50%
39%
40%
36%
43%
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Salford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.7
3.5
3.9
24.7
24.5
25.0
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
vs Similar (47)
9.5
9.9
9.1
3.8
3.5
4.1
25.1
24.6
25.6
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
21.0
21.0
21.0
% over line
53%
56%
50%
44%
35%
54%
69%
68%
71%
% under line
47%
44%
50%
56%
65%
46%
31%
32%
29%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
@ 1.86+1.1%
Under 9.5
49.2%
@ 1.84-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.3%
Under 21.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shrewsbury or Draw✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.80
Edge
+2.9%
25%
30%
45%
covers Shrewsbury + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Shrewsbury or Salford✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.2%
25%
30%
45%
covers Shrewsbury + Salford
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw or Salford✗ Miss
75.1%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.3%
25%
30%
45%
covers Draw + Salford
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.9%
@ 1.46-1.9%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.57+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.58
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.2%
@ 3.24-3.6%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.31+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 8.59-3.4%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Shrewsbury over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 21.67-2.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Salford over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.0%
@ 1.21-2.0%
Under
25.0%
@ 4.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.07
Superbet
4.00
Salford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.3%
@ 2.03-5.7%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.72+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Salford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 4.33-5.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.18+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Salford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.57-4.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.05+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shrewsbury, so a minus line means Shrewsbury give that many goals of a start and Salford receive them. At -1, Shrewsbury must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shrewsbury win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Salford
Shrewsbury -2
2.5%
@ 23.00-1.5%
Draw -2
6.8%
@ 11.63-1.2%
Salford +2
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.90
Away
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Draw
Shrewsbury -1
9.3%
@ 8.53-1.2%
Draw -1
15.6%
@ 5.20-1.7%
Salford +1
75.1%
@ 1.25+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Handicap +1 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury +1
54.7%
@ 1.80+5.0%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.58-2.0%
Salford -1
22.3%
@ 3.53-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.50
Away
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Handicap +2 (Shrewsbury)Actual: Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury +2
77.7%
@ 1.24+5.5%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 5.49-2.4%
Salford -2
8.4%
@ 7.80-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
5.90
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Away
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.31
0.46
0.24
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (26)
0.23
0.62
0.33
0.50
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Salford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.40
0.13
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.13
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.39+1.0%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 2.79-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.85-2.0%
Under 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.38+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Betano
2.95
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Under
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 7.50-1.5%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.6%
@ 2.45+1.7%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.49-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.03-1.5%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.80
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 37.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Salford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 1.88-2.1%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.83+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Salford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.50-4.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Salford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 15.08-3.5%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.69
0.92
0.47
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.85
0.67
1.00
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Salford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.71
0.87
0.80
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.62-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.9%
@ 2.19-2.7%
Under 1.5
60.1%
@ 1.62+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 4.88-2.2%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.15+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.4%
@ 2.09+2.1%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.66-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 6.66+0.9%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.08-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 20.00-2.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Salford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.1%
@ 1.61-6.4%
Under
48.9%
@ 2.18+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Salford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.6%
@ 3.96-4.9%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.21+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Salford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.17-5.1%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.7%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.1%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
75.1%
1.25
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-2.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
74.8%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
1.30
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-3.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Shrewsbury
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison40%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Anderson67%
Arkell Jude-Boyd50%
Joe Gbode40%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd20%
Kevin Berkoe20%
Thomas Sang0%
J. Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Davison20%
Isaac Fletcher20%
Joe Gbode20%
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Salford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. N’Mai25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. Cesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
A. Oluwo25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
K. Cesay0%
K. N’Mai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Cesay25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. N’Mai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Langstaff50%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
Will Aimson25%
J. Powell25%
Luke Molyneux25%
K. Cesay25%
K. N’Mai25%
Jorge Grant0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Shrewsbury's squad is €4m less valuable than Salford's (€3m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Shrewsbury's attack is €2m less valuable than Salford's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Shrewsbury and Salford have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Shrewsbury's defence is €1m less valuable than Salford's (€2m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Gillingham
Accrington
Port Vale