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Shturmi vs Gareji Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Shturmi
Shturmi
Vs
13%
24%
63%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Shturmi’s recent home form shows a modest 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded against similar opponents, yet they are coming off a 0-1 defeat to Samtredia that dampened confidence. Gareji, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against similar sides and is buoyed by a 3-2 win over Kolkheti Poti. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 65 % chance to that outcome, with a 12 % chance of a home win and 23 % for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Gareji, with a 13.2 % probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Away +2 handicap (96.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.4 %), Under 5.5 (94.9 %), Draw or Away (87.8 %), and Away +1 handicap (87.8 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shturmi win
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji win
63.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W12L02L00D00D21W10W01L13LH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.071.070.860.881.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.001.001.150.850.871.13
vs Weaker (2)0.502.000.001.001.003.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W32W31W00D12L00D02L32W21WH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.252.061.501.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.281.721.002.001.641.36
vs Weaker (5)1.801.203.002.501.000.33
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.9%
0-1
12.7%
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
8.3%
0-3
8.1%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
4.4%
Shturmi goals ↓
Gareji goals →
01234
08.3%13%13%8.1%3.8%
14.4%11%9.5%6.0%2.8%
22.0%3.7%3.5%2.2%1.0%
30.5%0.9%0.9%0.5%0.3%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shturmi goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi is 0.75 points worse than Gareji in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Shturmi is 0.88 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Shturmi is 0.12 goals better than Gareji in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shturmi or Draw
36.5%
Avg Implied -
13%
24%
63%
covers Shturmi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi or Gareji
76.5%
Avg Implied -
13%
24%
63%
covers Shturmi + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gareji
87.0%
Avg Implied -
13%
24%
63%
covers Draw + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Shturmi, so a minus line means Shturmi give that many goals of a start and Gareji receive them. At -1, Shturmi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shturmi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shturmi)
Shturmi -2
0.8%
Draw -2
3.1%
Gareji +2
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shturmi)
Shturmi -1
3.9%
Draw -1
9.1%
Gareji +1
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shturmi)
Shturmi +1
36.5%
Draw +1
24.7%
Gareji -1
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shturmi)
Shturmi +2
61.2%
Draw +2
20.0%
Gareji -2
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShturmiShturmi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L01L00D00D10W00D01L00DH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.710.290.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.430.770.230.530.60
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W21W00D12L00D02L11D10WH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.621.060.290.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.320.800.431.070.180.45
vs Weaker (5)1.200.602.001.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShturmiShturmi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D01L00D00D11D10W00D13LH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.360.570.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.360.570.380.620.330.53
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W12L10W00D00D00D00D21W11DH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.870.621.001.210.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.960.920.570.931.450.91
vs Weaker (5)0.600.601.001.500.330.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals99.3%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Away +2 handicap96.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals96.1%-------
Under 5.594.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals87.8%-------
Under 4.587.4%-------
Draw or Away87.0%-------
Away +1 handicap87.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals84.8%-------
Home under 1.5 goals83.0%-------
Home or Away76.5%-------
Over 1.574.7%-------
Under 3.573.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals70.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
SHT wins
3
Draws
2
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shturmi vs Gareji · H/A from SHT
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/26AGareji Vs SHT0-0
09/11/24AGareji Vs SHT5-1
01/09/24HSHT Vs Gareji1-1
24/05/24AGareji Vs SHT4-1
06/04/24HSHT Vs Gareji1-1

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGori Vs SHT3-1
22/08/26HSHT Vs Samtredia0-1
15/08/26ASioni Vs SHT0-1
08/08/26HSHT Vs Merani Martvili2-1
22/06/26AKolkheti Poti Vs SHT0-0
17/06/26AGareji Vs SHT0-0
13/06/26HSHT Vs Telavi0-2
30/05/26AOdishi 1919 Vs SHT2-1
16/12/24AMerani Martvili Vs SHT0-1
12/12/24HSHT Vs Merani Martvili0-1

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AMerani Martvili Vs GAR1-2
22/08/26HGAR Vs Kolkheti Poti3-2
15/08/26HGAR Vs Aragvi Dusheti0-2
08/08/26ATelavi Vs GAR0-0
22/06/26HGAR Vs Odishi 19191-2
17/06/26HGAR Vs Shturmi0-0
13/06/26AGori Vs GAR1-3
30/05/26HGAR Vs Samtredia3-2
14/12/25ASpaeri Vs GAR1-2
10/12/25HGAR Vs Spaeri0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shturmi
Shturmi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.22
HomeWLLWL1.68
AwayLDDWL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%17%
AVG goals2.332.142.50
Over 1.5 %63%59%67%
Over 2.5 %41%36%46%
Over 3.5 %20%9%29%
Scored1.041.230.88
Conceded1.280.911.62
BTTS52%41%62%
Clean Sheet30%32%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.18
HomeWDLLW1.04
AwayLWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%23%33%
AVG goals2.702.772.62
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored1.281.231.33
Conceded1.421.541.29
BTTS60%54%67%
Clean Sheet20%19%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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