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Shturmi vs Merani Martvili Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Shturmi
Shturmi
Vs
44%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Shturmi are expected to emerge victorious in this Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 encounter against Merani Martvili, with a predicted probability of 44%. The match is likely to be a closely contested draw, with a 30% chance of a shared spoils. Merani Martvili's away win seems less probable, with a 26% chance.

The expected total number of goals is 2.4, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.1% probability. Shturmi have been averaging 1 goal scored and 1.1 conceded at home against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Merani Martvili have averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.67 conceded away against similar opponents.

The model's selection is Shturmi to win, with a 44% probability. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5, with a 78.4% probability, which offers a 6% edge. The home win percentage stands at 44%, while the draw percentage is 30% and the away win percentage is 26%.

Results analysis

The win extends Shturmi's run, their second in a row after coming off a win. The final score was 2-1 in favour of Shturmi. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct with a 44% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 78.4%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, with probabilities of 14.1%, 11.5%, and 10.6% respectively.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Shturmi win✓ Hit
44.3%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.92
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Dafabet
1.93
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.22
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
BetVictor
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Merani Martvili win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.60
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.85
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.64

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L42W11D01L10W12L02L00D00DH·SPA22/11A·WIT26/11H·DIN30/11A·ARA08/12H·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.301.001.070.881.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.931.301.001.070.881.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D22D04L11D32W21W11D02L21W02LA·SPA01/11H·DIN07/11A·GON21/11H·MES25/11H·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.531.271.400.601.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.881.481.331.420.461.54
vs Weaker (5)1.201.801.001.331.502.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.33+1.8%
Under 1.5
30.1%
@ 2.83-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
Pinnacle
2.83
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.05-2.5%
Under 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.67+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Under
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
@ 3.55-3.8%
Under 3.5
78.4%
@ 1.21+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Superbet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
@ 1.86-0.9%
No
51.5%
@ 1.81+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.90
BetVictor
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.83
No
William Hil
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 6.00+7.1%
1-0
11.5%@ 5.91+4.5%
0-0
10.6%@ 7.99+5.4%
2-0
8.8%@ 7.90+3.5%
2-1 ✓
8.8%@ 7.69+3.4%
0-1
8.0%@ 8.84+3.3%
1-2
6.4%@ 11.43+2.7%
0-2
4.6%@ 16.57+2.1%
Shturmi goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
01234
011%8.0%4.6%1.5%0.4%
112%14%6.4%2.1%0.5%
28.8%8.8%4.4%1.5%0.4%
34.0%4.0%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.4%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shturmi goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi is 0.38 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.62).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Shturmi and Merani Martvili are level in goals scored per game (both 0.62).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Shturmi is 0.25 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.38).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShturmiShturmi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L30W00D00D10W12L01L00D00DH·SPA22/11A·WIT26/11H·DIN30/11A·ARA08/12H·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.710.290.560.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.630.500.710.290.560.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W01L00D22D20W00D01L01L00DA·SPA01/11H·DIN07/11A·GON21/11H·MES25/11H·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.600.600.330.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.560.670.670.230.46
vs Weaker (5)0.600.800.330.331.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShturmiShturmi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D12L11D01L00D00D01L00D00DH·SPA22/11A·WIT26/11H·DIN30/11A·ARA08/12H·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.290.790.310.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.300.800.290.790.310.81
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L03L11D10W01L11D01L20W02LA·SPA01/11H·DIN07/11A·GON21/11H·MES25/11H·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.670.800.271.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.920.670.750.231.08
vs Weaker (5)0.601.000.671.000.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.4%1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
--+3.8%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SHT wins
0
Draws
1
MM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shturmi vs Merani Martvili · H/A from SHT
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/24AMerani Martvili Vs SHT0-1
12/12/24HSHT Vs Merani Martvili0-1

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26AKolkheti Poti Vs SHT0-0
17/06/26AGareji Vs SHT0-0
13/06/26HSHT Vs Telavi0-2
30/05/26AOdishi 1919 Vs SHT2-1
16/12/24AMerani Martvili Vs SHT0-1
12/12/24HSHT Vs Merani Martvili0-1
08/12/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs SHT1-1
30/11/24HSHT Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II4-2
26/11/24AWIT Georgia Vs SHT1-0
22/11/24HSHT Vs Spaeri1-0

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26HMM Vs Gori0-2
17/06/26HMM Vs Samtredia2-1
13/06/26ASioni Vs MM2-0
29/05/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs MM1-1
06/12/25ASamtredia Vs MM1-2
29/11/25HMM Vs Saburtalo II3-2
25/11/25HMM Vs Meshakhte1-1
21/11/25AGonio Vs MM4-0
07/11/25HMM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II2-2
01/11/25ASpaeri Vs MM0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shturmi
Shturmi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.19
HomeWWWLL1.70
AwayDWLDD0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%50%14%
AVG goals2.332.152.50
Over 1.5 %64%60%68%
Over 2.5 %40%35%45%
Over 3.5 %19%10%27%
Scored1.051.250.86
Conceded1.290.901.64
BTTS52%40%64%
Clean Sheet31%35%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.24
HomeDDWWL1.40
AwayDLWDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals3.103.123.08
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.181.440.92
Conceded1.921.682.16
BTTS58%68%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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