In the upcoming match between Shturmi and Samtredia in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2, Shturmi's recent win over Merani Martvili has given them momentum, but Samtredia's own recent win over Aragvi Dusheti indicates they're on the rise. However, Shturmi are still the favourites to win, with a 44% chance of taking the three points, compared to Samtredia's 30% and a 26% draw.
The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12%. Shturmi have a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.69 goals per game against stronger opponents and conceding 1.44 goals. Samtredia, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 1.44 goals and conceding 1.69 goals against stronger opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with an 81.8% probability. Suggested picks include Home win (44%), Draw (26%), and Away win (30%), with the model's selection being Home win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Samtredia snatched a 1-0 victory over Shturmi, overturning the pre-match favourite, Home win, which the model had given a 44 % probability to. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 %, Under 6.5 at 96.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7 % and Under 5.5 at 91.2 %. Shturmi’s recent form of LWWDD left them coming off a defeat, while Samtredia’s WWWLL showed a three-game winning run. The match delivered a tidy, low-scoring outcome that matched the model’s heavy lean toward under-goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shturmi win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.91
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Dafabet
1.92
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Samtredia win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.49
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
1xBet
3.53
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.07
1.00
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.13
1.07
1.00
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.40
1.79
1.07
1.44
1.69
vs Stronger (29)
1.62
1.45
1.85
1.15
1.44
1.69
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.8%
@ 1.26+9.9%
Under 1.5
18.2%
@ 3.22-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.88+9.5%
Under 2.5
41.4%
@ 1.82-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
BetVictor
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
BetVictor
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
@ 3.15+7.5%
Under 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.27-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.75+8.9%
No
38.4%
@ 1.95-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
No
BetVictor
2.00
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.07+5.2%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.84+3.9%
1-2
7.4%@ 11.02+3.6%
1-0
6.9%@ 6.90+0.9%
2-0
6.8%@ 8.44+1.9%
2-2
6.2%@ 12.40+2.9%
0-0
5.9%@ 9.70+1.6%
0-1 ✓
5.4%@ 9.60+1.1%
Shturmi goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.4%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.9%
12%
7.4%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.2%
6.2%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.8%
5.2%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shturmi goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi is 0.62 points worse than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Shturmi is 1.38 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Shturmi is 0.38 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shturmi or Draw✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-3.9%
44%
26%
30%
covers Shturmi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Shturmi or Samtredia✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.8%
44%
26%
30%
covers Shturmi + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Samtredia✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied 52.8% · @ 1.73
Edge
+3.1%
44%
26%
30%
covers Draw + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shturmi over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.5%
@ 1.18+4.0%
Under
18.5%
@ 4.05-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.05
Shturmi over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 2.04+5.0%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.68-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.66
Shturmi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.3%
@ 1.41+9.4%
Under
25.7%
@ 2.61-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Samtredia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.4%
@ 3.04+9.2%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.31-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Under
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Samtredia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shturmi, so a minus line means Shturmi give that many goals of a start and Samtredia receive them. At -1, Shturmi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shturmi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shturmi)Actual: Samtredia
Shturmi -2
10.1%
@ 7.60-1.5%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 5.70-1.8%
Samtredia +2
76.2%
@ 1.21+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.60
Draw
Marathonbet
5.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.21
Handicap -1 (Shturmi)Actual: Samtredia
Shturmi -1
23.8%
@ 3.59-0.8%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 3.67-3.7%
Samtredia +1
55.8%
@ 1.72+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Away
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Handicap +1 (Shturmi)Actual: Draw
Shturmi +1
70.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
Samtredia -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shturmi)Actual: Shturmi
Shturmi +2
86.3%
Draw +2
8.9%
Samtredia -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.36
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.93
0.62
1.08
0.38
0.81
0.81
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.36+2.2%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 2.73-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.71
Marathonbet
2.71
Betano
2.52
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.6%
@ 2.72+1.0%
Under 1.5
65.4%
@ 1.37-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.80
Marathonbet
2.79
1xBet
2.79
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Under
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 6.50-1.7%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.4%
@ 1.84-3.1%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.80+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.4%
@ 2.40+4.3%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.48-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.71
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.71
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.83
0.77
0.77
0.62
0.88
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.4%
Under 1.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.8%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
-
-
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.2%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.3%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.40
-
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-3.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →