The contest between Shturmi and Sioni is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37% versus a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%. The predicted outcome is a 1-1 draw, the single most likely scoreline, with a 14% chance. The average number of goals expected is 2.5, with the most probable total of 2 goals occurring 27% of the time. Shturmi, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded, while Sioni, on the road, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Under 4.5 (88.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.2%), and Home under 2.5 goals (85.4%). Recent form shows Shturmi struggling after two straight defeats, while Sioni is riding a two-game winning run.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shturmi win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.07
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.00
1.15
0.85
0.87
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.47
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.30
1.73
1.45
1.75
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.50
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.1%
1-0
9.0%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
Shturmi goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
1
9.0%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.7%
8.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shturmi goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi is 0.62 points worse than Sioni in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Shturmi is 0.75 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Shturmi is 0.25 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shturmi or Draw
66.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Shturmi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi or Sioni
70.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Shturmi + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sioni
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Draw + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shturmi, so a minus line means Shturmi give that many goals of a start and Sioni receive them. At -1, Shturmi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shturmi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shturmi)
Shturmi -2
6.1%
Draw -2
11.2%
Sioni +2
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shturmi)
Shturmi -1
17.3%
Draw -1
19.9%
Sioni +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shturmi)
Shturmi +1
66.4%
Draw +1
18.7%
Sioni -1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shturmi)
Shturmi +2
85.1%
Draw +2
9.9%
Sioni -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.43
0.77
0.23
0.53
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.00
0.82
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili