PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Shukura vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

Date: 20/10/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 1-2
Shukura
Shukura
Vs
24%
23%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Shukura win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✓ Hit
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ShukuraShukura

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-605L15L02L15L23L24L00D01L06L05LA·DIN05/08A·SAB15/08H·TEL20/08A·DIL25/08H·DIN02/09A·SAM17/09H·TOR23/09A·GAG27/09H·DIN02/10A·SAM08/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
3.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.601.332.401.002.80
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.001.002.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.122.881.502.670.753.08
vs Weaker (3)2.002.002.002.002.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L51W12L00D50W01L01L01L05L00DH·TOR08/08H·SHU15/08H·DIL20/08A·SAM26/08H·GAG02/09A·SAM17/09H·TEL24/09A·DIN29/09A·TOR03/10H·DIN08/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.202.000.881.501.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.531.531.561.221.501.88
vs Weaker (13)2.080.772.570.431.501.17
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Shukura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
0-3
4.9%
Shukura goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
01234
04.6%6.3%7.3%4.9%2.5%
13.8%10%9.6%6.4%3.2%
23.1%6.2%6.3%4.2%2.1%
31.3%2.7%2.7%1.8%0.9%
40.4%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shukura goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Shukura is 0.94 points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (0.47 vs 1.42).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura is 0.56 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.61).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Shukura is 1.75 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (3.11 vs 1.36).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ShukuraShukura

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ShukuraShukura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (3)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (41)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.29.511.00.40.40.4---
vs Stronger (2)10.011.09.05.55.06.0---
vs Similar (29)10.58.013.00.30.30.4---
vs Weaker (19)---0.00.00.0---
% over line50%50%50%8%8%8%---
% under line50%50%50%92%92%92%---
This opponent (Shukura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShukuraShukura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L04L01L03L20W11D00D00D05L02LA·DIN05/08A·SAB15/08H·TEL20/08A·DIL25/08H·DIN02/09A·SAM17/09H·TOR23/09A·GAG27/09H·DIN02/10A·SAM08/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.130.731.000.531.27
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.621.330.831.170.421.50
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W11D00D20W01L01L01L03L00DH·TOR08/08H·SHU15/08H·DIL20/08A·SAM26/08H·GAG02/09A·SAM17/09H·TEL24/09A·DIN29/09A·TOR03/10H·DIN08/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.400.940.250.710.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.760.470.890.330.620.62
vs Weaker (13)0.920.311.000.140.830.50
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Shukura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shukura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shukura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shukura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShukuraShukura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L11D01L12L03L13L00D01L01L03LA·DIN05/08A·SAB15/08H·TEL20/08A·DIL25/08H·DIN02/09A·SAM17/09H·TOR23/09A·GAG27/09H·DIN02/10A·SAM08/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.470.601.400.471.53
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.000.502.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.501.540.671.500.331.58
vs Weaker (3)0.671.671.002.000.501.50
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D01L00D30W00D00D00D02L00DH·TOR08/08H·SHU15/08H·DIL20/08A·SAM26/08H·GAG02/09A·SAM17/09H·TEL24/09A·DIN29/09A·TOR03/10H·DIN08/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.801.060.620.791.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.761.060.670.890.881.25
vs Weaker (13)1.150.461.570.290.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Shukura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shukura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shukura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shukura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
SHU wins
0
Draws
3
SAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shukura vs Saburtalo · H/A from SHU
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/23ASaburtalo Vs SHU5-1
05/05/23HSHU Vs Saburtalo2-3
08/03/23ASaburtalo Vs SHU2-1

ShukuraShukura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23ASamgurali Vs SHU5-0
02/10/23HSHU Vs Dinamo Batumi0-6
27/09/23AGagra Vs SHU1-0
23/09/23HSHU Vs Torpedo Kutaisi0-0
17/09/23ASamtredia Vs SHU4-2
02/09/23HSHU Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-3
25/08/23ADila Vs SHU5-1
20/08/23HSHU Vs Telavi0-2
15/08/23ASaburtalo Vs SHU5-1
05/08/23ADinamo Batumi Vs SHU5-0

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23HSAB Vs Dinamo Batumi0-0
03/10/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAB5-0
29/09/23ADinamo Tbilisi Vs SAB1-0
24/09/23HSAB Vs Telavi0-1
17/09/23ASamgurali Vs SAB1-0
02/09/23HSAB Vs Gagra5-0
26/08/23ASamtredia Vs SAB0-0
20/08/23HSAB Vs Dila1-2
15/08/23HSAB Vs Shukura5-1
08/08/23HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shukura
Shukura
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.16
HomeDLLDL1.04
AwayLLLLL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%29%38%
AVG goals3.283.253.31
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %68%75%62%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored1.401.461.35
Conceded1.881.791.96
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.40
HomeWLWLD1.52
AwayLDLLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals3.083.043.12
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.681.841.52
Conceded1.401.201.60
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners10.259.5011.00
Cards5.004.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3674
58%
2.1
8341+42
3.4
94%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.31.1
-
2Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3671
58%
2.0
9349+44
3.9
92%
81%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.61.4
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3660
44%
1.7
5537+18
2.6
67%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.51.0
-
4DilaDila3660
47%
1.7
5639+17
2.6
72%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.1
-
5SamguraliSamgurali3657
44%
1.6
5351+2
2.9
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.4
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3651
39%
1.4
5849+9
3.0
78%
72%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.61.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3841
29%
1.1
3963-24
2.7
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8GagraGagra3638
28%
1.1
4765-18
3.1
64%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
9SamtrediaSamtredia3836
26%
0.9
5566-11
3.2
82%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10ShukuraShukura3617
11%
0.5
38112-74
4.2
89%
75%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.1
-
11GarejiGareji23
50%
1.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
12SpaeriSpaeri21
0%
0.5
15-4
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.52.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

← all matches