In this Lithuania: A Lyga fixture, the away win is the most likely outcome, with a 43% probability, ahead of a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a home win for Šiauliai against Banga. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability.
Šiauliai have recently struggled at home, conceding an average of 1.25 goals per match against weaker opponents, while scoring 2.75 goals on average. Banga, on the other hand, have fared slightly better away from home, scoring 1.21 goals per match against stronger opponents, but conceding 1.5 goals.
The model's selection for this match is an away win for Banga. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.5% chance of success, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.5% chance of success. Home win percentage is 29%, draw percentage is 28%, and away win percentage is 43%.
Results analysis
The win extends their run of consecutive defeats to six for Šiauliai, who fell 1-3 to Banga. The actual result was an away win, which is what the model called. Banga was the favourite, with a 43% chance of winning pre-match. The model's call was correct, as Banga's 1-3 victory was the actual result. The model's selection of an away win was the correct call. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.5%, while the selection of Under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.75
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Betfair
3.90
Bet365
3.90
Pinnacle
3.87
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Marathonbet
3.54
1xBet
3.54
Dafabet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Banga win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.80
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.87
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.87
1.67
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.83
1.92
1.58
1.18
2.09
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
0.92
1.00
1.22
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.45
0.00
1.40
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.83
1.57
0.71
1.36
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
@ 1.26+3.1%
Under 1.5
24.5%
@ 3.29-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.86-0.1%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.82+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.5%
@ 3.07-2.0%
Under 3.5
72.5%
@ 1.29+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.74+2.2%
No
45.5%
@ 1.91-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
No
Unibet
2.06
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.05+6.4%
0-1
9.2%@ 6.35+2.5%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.49+3.3%
0-0
8.3%@ 9.32+3.7%
0-2
7.7%@ 7.88+2.3%
2-1
7.2%@ 11.75+3.5%
1-0
7.1%@ 10.11+2.8%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.30+2.1%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Banga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
9.2%
7.7%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.1%
13%
9.0%
4.5%
1.6%
2
4.9%
7.2%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.9%
2.8%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Banga goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Šiauliai is 1.00 points worse than Banga in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Šiauliai is 0.50 goals worse than Banga in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Šiauliai is 1.12 goals worse than Banga in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.74
0.75
0.67
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.42
0.42
0.56
0.28
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.45
0.00
0.40
0.17
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.28
0.71
0.43
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.13
1.00
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.09
1.17
0.92
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.58
0.67
0.78
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.56
0.86
0.29
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.29
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
+2.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Šiauliai and Banga have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Banga have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Banga have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Šiauliai and Banga have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Trakai