Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai Result & Analysis

Šiauliai are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 64% chance of victory. The team’s home form is solid, averaging 1.73 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Džiugas Telšiai struggle on the road, scoring just 0.71 and conceding 1.29. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Šiauliai, with a 14.2% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the match is expected to finish 1-0 in Šiauliai’s favour. The probabilities for the match outcome are 64% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 12% for an away win. The suggested selections include Under 3.5 with a 76.4% chance of hitting, and Over 1.5 with a 71.7% chance of missing. The recent form shows Šiauliai after two straight defeats, while Džiugas comes off a draw.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. Šiauliai’s recent run of LLWLL, after two straight defeats, was not enough to stop Džiugas Telšiai, who entered the match on a DLLWD streak and came off a draw. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s prediction of a home win had a 64% probability, but the outcome proved otherwise. The model’s other selections performed unevenly: Under 3.5 goals, with a 76.4% chance, hit, while Over 1.5 goals, at 71.7%, missed. The match confirmed that the predicted 2-goal total was unlikely, with the most probable scoreline 1-0 or 2-0, each around 14% probability.