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Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 3-4
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Vs
33%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated matchup in the Lithuania: A Lyga pits Šiauliai against Dėmblas Telšiai. The recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match, with Šiauliai still reeling from four consecutive defeats, while Dėmblas Telšiai comes off a draw against Panevėžys. The model's selection is the Away win, with a 39% probability, indicating a finely balanced contest. The expected total goals stand at 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%.

Šiauliai have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding 1.6, while Dėmblas Telšiai's away form is less impressive, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 2.12 against stronger opponents. The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5 with a 76.4% probability and Under 3.5 with a 71.3% probability, indicating a possible high-scoring encounter. The probabilities for the match result are 33% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 39% for an away win.

Results analysis

The win extends their run of consecutive defeats to 6 for Šiauliai, who were defeated 3-4 at home by Deižiai Telšiai. The final score was well clear of the model's expected total of 2.7 goals, with the actual result being a high-scoring match. The model's selection, Deižiai Telšiai's win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was correct, as Deižiai Telšiai were the favourites, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, Deižiai Telšiai's win, was correct. The model's selection, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 76.4%, while Under 3.5 missed with a probability of 71.3%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Šiauliai win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D22D40W21W21W03L04L02L13LA·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11A·JON29/04A·ATA20/05H·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.701.801.801.331.60
vs Stronger (4)0.501.501.002.500.000.50
vs Similar (23)1.521.911.831.751.182.09
vs Weaker (3)3.330.333.001.003.500.00
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L14L41W22D20W00D12L10W01L11DA·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.330.931.201.271.47
vs Stronger (13)0.851.690.831.830.861.57
vs Similar (17)1.291.061.000.781.621.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
01234
07.9%8.3%6.8%3.2%1.1%
17.3%13%8.7%4.1%1.5%
25.5%7.8%5.6%2.6%0.9%
32.3%3.3%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Šiauliai is 0.77 points worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Šiauliai is 0.39 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Šiauliai is 1.05 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W12L30W01L11D00D02L02L12LA·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11A·JON29/04A·ATA20/05H·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.800.800.600.67
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
vs Similar (23)0.650.830.830.830.450.82
vs Weaker (3)1.670.331.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L10W21W00D00D11D10W00D01LA·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.270.730.670.60
vs Stronger (13)0.310.920.171.170.430.71
vs Similar (17)0.590.470.330.440.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L10W10W20W10W03L02L00D01LA·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11A·JON29/04A·ATA20/05H·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.971.001.000.730.93
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.502.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.871.091.000.920.731.27
vs Weaker (3)1.670.002.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D31W01L20W00D01L00D01L10WA·HEG23/10H·PAN26/10H·FK 02/11A·ŠIA08/11A·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.670.470.600.87
vs Stronger (13)0.540.770.670.670.430.86
vs Similar (17)0.710.590.670.330.750.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Šiauliai's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ŠIA wins
3
Draws
1
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai · H/A from ŠIA
DateH/AGameScore
24/06/26HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1
08/11/25HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-2
31/08/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA1-3
29/06/25HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai5-0
26/04/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA0-1
02/11/24HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-3
09/08/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA2-2
15/06/24HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai3-3

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26HŠIA Vs Banga1-3
24/07/26HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2
18/07/26AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA4-0
05/07/26HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-3
24/06/26HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1
20/05/26AAtaka Vilnius Vs ŠIA1-2
29/04/26AJonava Vs ŠIA0-4
08/11/25HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-2
02/11/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs ŠIA2-2
26/10/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA1-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26APanevėžys Vs DT1-1
26/07/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs DT1-0
19/07/26HDT Vs Banga1-0
24/06/26AŠiauliai Vs DT2-1
20/05/26HDT Vs Banga0-0
22/04/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs DT0-2
08/11/25AŠiauliai Vs DT2-2
02/11/25HDT Vs FK Trakai4-1
26/10/25HDT Vs Panevėžys1-4
23/10/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs DT4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.40
HomeDWLLL1.35
AwayLDWWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%35%44%
AVG goals3.183.522.89
Over 1.5 %84%96%74%
Over 2.5 %74%87%63%
Over 3.5 %46%52%41%
Scored1.561.741.41
Conceded1.621.781.48
BTTS58%65%52%
Clean Sheet18%13%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.48
HomeDLWDW1.05
AwayDWLLD1.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%23%57%
AVG goals2.141.952.29
Over 1.5 %60%59%61%
Over 2.5 %34%27%39%
Over 3.5 %16%14%18%
Scored1.080.861.25
Conceded1.061.091.04
BTTS42%50%36%
Clean Sheet38%27%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
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0
0000.00.0
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Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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