The contest between Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win yet the odds for a draw or away victory are close behind. The expected total of 3.1 goals sits above the most probable total of 2, which carries a 23% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with an 11.8% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Šiauliai, at home, averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Džiugas Telšiai, away, has 1.89 goals for and 1.56 against. Both teams have recently endured two straight defeats, with Šiauliai losing 1-2 to Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai falling 0-2 to FK Žalgiris Vilnius.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Over 1.5 (82.8%), Home +2 handicap (82.6%) and Away under 2.5 goals (80.5%). The probabilities for a home win, draw and away win are 39%, 26% and 35% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.47
1.88
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.92
1.43
1.86
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
0.93
1.36
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.79
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.00
0.88
0.88
2.12
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
0-2
5.7%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
6.1%
5.7%
3.0%
1.2%
1
5.9%
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.2%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.6%
4.1%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Šiauliai is 0.77 points worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Šiauliai is 0.39 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Šiauliai is 1.05 goals worse than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Šiauliai or Draw
61.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Šiauliai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai or Džiugas Telšiai
73.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Šiauliai + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
64.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Draw + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Šiauliai, so a minus line means Šiauliai give that many goals of a start and Džiugas Telšiai receive them. At -1, Šiauliai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Šiauliai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -2
6.8%
Draw -2
10.8%
Džiugas Telšiai +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -1
17.6%
Draw -1
18.1%
Džiugas Telšiai +1
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +1
61.8%
Draw +1
18.8%
Džiugas Telšiai -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +2
80.6%
Draw +2
11.7%
Džiugas Telšiai -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.71
0.94
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.71
1.00
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.36
0.57
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.79
0.33
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.31
0.38
0.25
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.76
0.94
0.77
0.85
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.96
0.71
0.86
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.62
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Šiauliai's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Šiauliai and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Trakai