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Šiauliai vs FK Trakai Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/10/2026
Time: 13:00
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Vs
42%
26%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Šiauliai are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of taking the match, 25% for a draw and 29% for FK Trakai. The model expects an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with an 11.6% chance. At home, Šiauliai have scored 1.54 and conceded 1.92 against similar opposition, while Trakai, on the road, have managed 0.64 goals and allowed 1.91. Recent form shows Šiauliai after two straight defeats, last losing 1-2 to Suduva Marijampole, and Trakai coming off a 0-4 loss to Kauno Žalgiris. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (90.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.6%), Home +2 handicap (87.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.3%) and Over 1.5 (83.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Šiauliai win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai win
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W03L04L02L13L34L10W03L12L01LH·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08H·DŽI09/08H·PAN17/08A·TRA24/08H·SUD30/08H·KAU03/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.771.471.881.381.62
vs Stronger (3)0.672.001.002.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.291.921.431.861.102.00
vs Weaker (3)3.330.333.001.003.500.00
Clean sheet %13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W10W22D14L11D00D21W10W04LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.772.030.932.000.602.07
vs Stronger (6)0.503.500.333.670.673.33
vs Similar (22)0.821.771.001.640.641.91
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
0-0
5.7%
0-1
5.4%
Šiauliai goals ↓
FK Trakai goals →
01234
05.7%5.4%4.6%2.2%0.8%
16.5%12%7.7%3.6%1.3%
26.3%9.0%6.4%3.0%1.1%
33.5%5.0%3.5%1.7%0.6%
41.5%2.1%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = FK Trakai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Šiauliai or Draw
68.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Šiauliai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai or FK Trakai
74.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Šiauliai + FK Trakai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Trakai
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Draw + FK Trakai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Šiauliai, so a minus line means Šiauliai give that many goals of a start and FK Trakai receive them. At -1, Šiauliai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Šiauliai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -2
9.4%
Draw -2
13.0%
FK Trakai +2
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -1
22.4%
Draw -1
19.9%
FK Trakai +1
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +1
68.2%
Draw +1
16.8%
FK Trakai -1
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +2
85.0%
Draw +2
9.5%
FK Trakai -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L02L12L13L10W01L01L00DH·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08H·DŽI09/08H·PAN17/08A·TRA24/08H·SUD30/08H·KAU03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.710.940.620.77
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.580.960.711.000.400.90
vs Weaker (3)1.670.331.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D12L01L00D00D11D10W03LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.100.401.200.201.00
vs Stronger (6)0.172.000.002.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.320.910.450.910.180.91
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L02L00D01L21W00D02L11D01LH·DŽI24/06H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07H·HEG24/07H·BAN03/08H·DŽI09/08H·PAN17/08A·TRA24/08H·SUD30/08H·KAU03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.760.940.770.85
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.502.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.960.710.860.701.10
vs Weaker (3)1.670.002.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W10W13L11D00D10W00D01LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.530.800.401.07
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.331.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.500.860.550.730.451.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.6%-------
Under 6.596.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.3%-------
Under 5.590.8%-------
Home +2 handicap85.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals82.8%-------
Over 1.582.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.0%-------
Under 4.580.1%-------
Away +2 handicap77.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals76.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals75.8%-------
Home or Away74.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
ŠIA wins
2
Draws
1
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Šiauliai vs FK Trakai · H/A from ŠIA
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-1
11/07/25AFK Trakai Vs ŠIA0-2
19/06/25AFK Trakai Vs ŠIA1-0
29/04/25AFK Trakai Vs ŠIA1-2
16/04/25HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-2
25/08/23AFK Trakai Vs ŠIA0-1
24/06/23HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-0
22/04/23HŠIA Vs FK Trakai1-1

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HŠIA Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-1
30/08/26HŠIA Vs Suduva Marijampole1-2
24/08/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs ŠIA3-0
17/08/26HŠIA Vs Panevėžys1-0
09/08/26HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai3-4
03/08/26HŠIA Vs Banga1-3
24/07/26HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2
18/07/26AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA4-0
05/07/26HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-3
24/06/26HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/26HFT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-4
28/04/26AVilnius FA Vs FT0-1
22/11/25HFT Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-1
15/11/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs FT0-0
08/11/25ADainava Vs FT1-1
02/11/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FT4-1
26/10/25HFT Vs Banga2-2
22/10/25APanevėžys Vs FT0-1
18/10/25HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-0
04/10/25HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.34
HomeLLWLL1.31
AwayDWWLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%35%42%
AVG goals3.083.462.67
Over 1.5 %80%88%71%
Over 2.5 %70%81%58%
Over 3.5 %40%50%29%
Scored1.481.731.21
Conceded1.601.731.46
BTTS54%65%42%
Clean Sheet20%15%25%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.14
HomeDWDWL1.24
AwayWLDDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.963.162.76
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.261.481.04
Conceded1.701.681.72
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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