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Šiauliai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 05/07/2026
Time: 15:45
Final 0-3
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Vs
35%
25%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Šiauliai a 35% win probability against FK Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania: A Lyga on 2026-07-05, with 25% for the draw and 40% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Šiauliai finished 0-3 against FK Zalgiris Vilnius (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 35% home win, 25% draw and 40% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Šiauliai win✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L30W21W33D13L13L01L22D22DA·DŽI31/08H·HEG14/09A·DAI19/09H·FK 27/09H·PAN05/10A·KAU17/10H·BAN22/10A·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.502.071.601.131.40
vs Stronger (9)0.782.221.002.000.602.40
vs Similar (11)1.641.452.171.671.001.20
vs Weaker (10)2.300.902.801.201.800.60
Clean sheet %20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W20W31W21W11D21W10W31W13LH·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09A·DŽI05/10A·DAI18/10A·KAU22/10H·ŠIA26/10H·HEG02/11A·PAN08/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.031.270.531.601.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.001.401.200.800.802.00
vs Weaker (20)1.650.851.300.402.001.30
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
Šiauliai goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
01234
05.0%5.6%5.5%3.1%1.3%
15.2%11%8.6%4.8%2.0%
24.8%8.0%6.7%3.7%1.5%
32.5%4.2%3.5%1.9%0.8%
41.0%1.6%1.4%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.25
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.14
Panevėžys
1.00
Hegelmann Litauen
0.67
Šiauliai
0.50
Šiauliai is 1.75 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.75
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.20
Hegelmann Litauen
1.17
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Šiauliai
0.83
Panevėžys
0.80
Šiauliai is 1.92 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.25
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
Panevėžys
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.60
Hegelmann Litauen
2.17
Šiauliai
2.67
Šiauliai is 1.17 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Šiauliai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · H/A from ŠIA
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA1-0
11/08/25HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2
13/06/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA0-0
12/04/25HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-0
06/11/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA3-1
04/10/24HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-3
26/05/24HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-2
07/04/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA3-0

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-2
02/11/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs ŠIA2-2
26/10/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA1-0
22/10/25HŠIA Vs Banga1-3
17/10/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA3-1
05/10/25HŠIA Vs Panevėžys3-3
27/09/25HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-1
19/09/25ADainava Vs ŠIA0-3
14/09/25HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
31/08/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA1-3

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25APanevėžys Vs FZV3-1
02/11/25HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
26/10/25HFZV Vs Šiauliai1-0
22/10/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV1-2
18/10/25ADainava Vs FZV1-1
05/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV1-2
29/09/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-3
19/09/25AFK Trakai Vs FZV0-2
13/09/25ABanga Vs FZV0-2
31/08/25HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.34
HomeLWDLD1.58
AwayWWLLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%31%
AVG goals3.123.462.81
Over 1.5 %82%92%73%
Over 2.5 %72%88%58%
Over 3.5 %46%54%38%
Scored1.541.881.23
Conceded1.581.581.58
BTTS62%71%54%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.76
HomeWDWWW2.00
AwayWWDWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%58%42%
AVG goals2.722.463.00
Over 1.5 %80%73%88%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %30%23%38%
Scored1.621.651.58
Conceded1.100.811.42
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet32%42%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
2Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.81.5
-
4BangaBanga59
60%
1.8
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.81.6
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius78
29%
1.1
610-4
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys55
20%
1.0
46-2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.81.2
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen64
17%
0.7
713-6
3.3
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.22.2
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai63
17%
0.5
516-11
3.5
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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