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Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Vs
42%
25%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Šiauliai a 42% win probability against Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania: A Lyga on 2026-07-24, with 25% for the draw and 33% for Hegelmann Litauen. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Šiauliai finished 0-2 against Hegelmann Litauen (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 42% home win, 25% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Šiauliai win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W33D13L13L01L22D22D03L04LA·DAI19/09H·FK 27/09H·PAN05/10A·KAU17/10H·BAN22/10A·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.631.931.671.071.60
vs Stronger (11)0.642.450.802.200.502.67
vs Similar (9)1.671.442.201.601.001.25
vs Weaker (10)2.300.902.801.201.800.60
Clean sheet %20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W11D00D02L41W20W13L21W11D15LA·PAN21/09H·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.271.711.071.121.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.001.501.401.600.711.43
vs Weaker (18)1.671.111.890.781.441.44
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
6.0%
2-0
6.0%
0-0
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
05.2%5.1%4.6%2.2%0.8%
16.0%11%7.7%3.8%1.4%
26.0%8.9%6.6%3.3%1.2%
33.4%5.0%3.7%1.8%0.7%
41.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.25
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.14
Panevėžys
1.00
Hegelmann Litauen
0.67
Šiauliai
0.50
Šiauliai is 0.17 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.75
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.20
Hegelmann Litauen
1.17
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Šiauliai
0.83
Panevėžys
0.80
Šiauliai is 0.33 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.25
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
Panevėžys
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.60
Hegelmann Litauen
2.17
Šiauliai
2.67
Šiauliai is 0.50 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W11D01L00D01L10W12L00D02LA·DAI19/09H·FK 27/09H·PAN05/10A·KAU17/10H·BAN22/10A·FK 26/10A·SUD02/11H·DŽI08/11H·FK 05/07A·KAU18/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.800.470.530.67
vs Stronger (11)0.270.820.400.600.171.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.220.800.200.500.25
vs Weaker (10)1.100.601.200.601.000.60
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D00D20W10W12L00D00D03LA·PAN21/09H·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.790.360.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.421.200.600.290.29
vs Weaker (18)0.610.500.560.220.670.78
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ŠIA wins
3
Draws
4
HL wins

Head-to-head

Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from ŠIA
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
05/07/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA5-2
02/05/25HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-3
15/03/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA1-0
01/09/24HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
26/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA0-0
01/05/24HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
13/03/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA2-2

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA4-0
05/07/26HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-3
08/11/25HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-2
02/11/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs ŠIA2-2
26/10/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA1-0
22/10/25HŠIA Vs Banga1-3
17/10/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA3-1
05/10/25HŠIA Vs Panevėžys3-3
27/09/25HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-1
19/09/25ADainava Vs ŠIA0-3

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL5-1
04/07/26APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
08/11/25HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
27/10/25ADainava Vs HL0-2
23/10/25HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-1
18/10/25AFK Trakai Vs HL2-0
05/10/25HHL Vs Banga0-0
01/10/25HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1
21/09/25APanevėžys Vs HL0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.30
HomeWDLDL1.52
AwayWLLDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.183.442.92
Over 1.5 %84%92%76%
Over 2.5 %74%88%60%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.501.801.20
Conceded1.681.641.72
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.62
HomeDDDWW2.00
AwayLWLDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.822.882.76
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.481.801.16
Conceded1.341.081.60
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
2Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.81.5
-
4BangaBanga59
60%
1.8
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.81.6
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius78
29%
1.1
610-4
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys55
20%
1.0
46-2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.81.2
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen64
17%
0.7
713-6
3.3
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.22.2
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai63
17%
0.5
516-11
3.5
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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