The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.2 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.6% chance. Home side Šiauliai, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Their recent form is a win followed by four losses, but they just secured a 1-0 victory over Panevėžys. Away side Hegelmann Litauen, on the road against a similar strength team, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, and they finish a draw after a 1-1 tie with Banga. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 38% for a Hegelmann victory, 26% for a draw, and 37% for a Šiauliai win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Under 5.5 (89.9%), Over 1.5 (83.4%), Away +2 handicap (81.6%), and Home +2 handicap (80.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.47
1.88
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.92
1.43
1.86
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.11
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
2.12
1.38
0.75
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.70
1.25
0.75
1.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
1-3
5.1%
0-0
4.8%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.6%
5.7%
3.3%
1.5%
1
4.8%
11%
8.8%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.7%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.3%
4.0%
3.4%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Šiauliai is 0.38 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Šiauliai is 0.50 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Šiauliai is 0.62 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Šiauliai or Draw
58.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Šiauliai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai or Hegelmann Litauen
75.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Šiauliai + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
66.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Draw + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5
Over
82.5%
Under
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Šiauliai, so a minus line means Šiauliai give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann Litauen receive them. At -1, Šiauliai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Šiauliai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.0%
Hegelmann Litauen +2
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai -1
16.2%
Draw -1
16.8%
Hegelmann Litauen +1
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +1
58.1%
Draw +1
19.3%
Hegelmann Litauen -1
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Šiauliai)
Šiauliai +2
77.4%
Draw +2
12.9%
Hegelmann Litauen -2
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.71
0.94
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.71
1.00
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.92
0.33
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
1.12
0.38
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.8%
Under 0.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.7%
Under 1.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.76
0.94
0.77
0.85
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.96
0.71
0.86
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
Under 0.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.8%
Under 2.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Šiauliai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Šiauliai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
FK Trakai