Šiauliai vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with both sides averaging fewer than one goal per game against comparable opposition. The model favours an away win, assigning a 34% chance to Kauno Žalgiris, 32% to Šiauliai and 33% to a draw. The expected total goals sit at 2.0, a tight figure that reflects the low-scoring nature of recent matches. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.9% probability, underscoring the likelihood of a stalemate that could tilt in favour of the visitors.

Šiauliai, playing at home, has struggled to find the net, scoring only 0.4 goals per game while conceding 0.8 against similar teams. Kauno Žalgiris, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded, suggesting a slightly stronger offensive threat but a porous defence.

The model’s selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability. No other selections are offered.

The recent run for Šiauliai has stalled, with their last five matches ending in two defeats before a win, while Kauno Žalgiris comes off a draw and has a solid away form. The Pythia model predicted an away win with a 34% probability, and the final 0-1 result confirmed the model’s call. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.9% and the expected total of two goals was met. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals at 85.5%, hit the mark. Overall, the predictions aligned closely with the outcome, delivering a correct favourite and a successful under-goals pick.