The contest between Šiauliai and Kauno Žalgiris is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost even: a 33% chance for Šiauliai, 31% for a draw, and 35% for Kauno Žalgiris. The expected total of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being two. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Šiauliai, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.1 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris on the road against a similar side averages one goal scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection list includes an 80.5% chance of Under 3.5 goals. The final score of the last match was 0-3, confirming Kauno Žalgiris’s away win.
Results analysis
The win for Kauno Žalgiris extends their recent form, adding another victory after a draw. The final score was 0-3, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite was an away win with a 35% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals came with an 80.5% probability and hit, as the match produced only three goals. The most likely total of 2 goals at 28% did not materialise, but the overall outcome aligned with the model’s expectations. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy in predicting both the result and the goal-count selection.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.96
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.10
1.00
1.10
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
1.20
1.33
1.17
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.30
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
1.13
1.38
1.00
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
24% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.6%
0-1
10.6%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.4%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.4%
7.4%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.4%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Šiauliai is 0.36 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Šiauliai is 0.44 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Šiauliai is 0.06 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.52
0.50
0.75
0.31
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.64
0.42
0.75
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
52% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.44
0.58
0.25
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.30
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.84
0.56
0.92
0.42
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
1.25
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
0.75
0.25
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
56% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Šiauliai's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Šiauliai's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Šiauliai and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Šiauliai's defence is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€3m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →