The contest between Šiauliai and Kauno Žalgiris is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 38% for the visitors to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly active match, with the most likely total being two goals. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Šiauliai, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Kauno Žalgiris, on the road and against a similar side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with a 78.9% probability. The home win probability is 32%, the draw 31%, and the away win 38%. All figures are presented once, with no additional commentary beyond the required data.
Results analysis
The match saw Kauno Žalgiris extend their recent run, turning a draw into a win after a shaky start to the season. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the model’s prediction that the away side would triumph, with the probability of 38% for an away win. The total goals scored, five, far exceeded the expected 2.4 and the most likely 2-goal total, underscoring a more open game than anticipated. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5, missed, as the five-goal tally was well above the 78.9% probability. All other selections were settled, and the model’s call of an away win proved correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.21
1.36
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.67
2.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.38
1.44
1.11
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.00
1.38
1.08
1.47
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.93
2.00
0.57
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
1.06
0.67
1.67
1.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.8%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.9%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.9%
7.3%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Dainava
0.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Šiauliai is 0.64 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Šiauliai is 0.22 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Šiauliai is 0.75 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.62
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.38
0.38
0.65
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.76
0.56
0.44
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.69
0.82
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.29
1.57
0.14
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.75
0.33
1.33
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Šiauliai's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Šiauliai's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Šiauliai and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Šiauliai's defence is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€3m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda