Pythia gives Šiauliai a 23% win probability against Panevėžys in the Lithuania: A Lyga on 2023-10-30, with 36% for the draw and 41% for Panevėžys. The model estimates around 1.7 total goals, with 1 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (18.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (90%), Under 2.5 (75%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Panevėžys, fell short in a 1-1 draw that left the model’s prediction wrong. The match, a home game for Šiauliai, saw the home side’s recent form slump to two straight defeats, while Panevėžys entered on a win. The model had given Panevėžys a 41% chance of victory, but the result was a draw. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 90.1% probability, and Under 2.5 also hit at 74.6%. The most likely scoreline was 0-0 at 18.8%, followed by 0-1 and 1-1, each under 20%. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 probability of 14.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.20
0.60
1.27
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.18
1.36
0.82
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.40
1.81
0.44
1.21
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.45
0.45
1.83
0.50
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.2%
Under 1.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.9%
Under 3.5
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.0%
No
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.8%
0-1
16.8%
1-1 ✓
14.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-1
4.6%
2-0
4.4%
Šiauliai goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
17%
9.3%
3.2%
0.8%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
4.4%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šiauliai goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Šiauliai is 0.78 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 2.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Šiauliai is 0.44 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Šiauliai
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Dainava
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Šiauliai is 0.61 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.45
0.64
0.45
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.17
0.69
0.19
0.43
0.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.18
0.75
0.25
0.30
0.10
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.60
0.27
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.73
0.36
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.23
1.12
0.25
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.27
1.08
0.25
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Šiauliai and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Šiauliai and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Šiauliai and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Šiauliai and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen
Banga
Suduva Marijampole
Džiugas Telšiai
Dainava
FK Trakai
Be1 NFA