This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.47
1.20
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.90
1.00
1.20
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.00
1.70
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.3%
Under 1.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.9%
Under 2.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.3%
Under 3.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.1%
0-1
13.2%
1-0 ✓
10.4%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.4%
Sibenik goals ↓
Istra 1961 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.2%
3.1%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.4%
6.2%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sibenik goals (down), columns = Istra 1961 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
Sibenik is 0.50 points worse than Istra 1961 in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
Sibenik is 0.31 goals worse than Istra 1961 in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
Sibenik is 0.50 goals worse than Istra 1961 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
Sibenik is 4.6 percentage points worse than Istra 1961 in terms of average possession (45% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sibenik
For 4.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Istra 1961
For 3.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
7.5
9.9
2.5
2.8
2.2
25.3
27.3
23.2
vs Stronger (8)
8.2
6.3
9.4
4.5
6.3
3.4
25.1
28.3
23.2
vs Similar (42)
8.9
7.9
10.3
2.1
2.2
1.9
25.4
27.0
23.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
25%
50%
34%
38%
31%
75%
83%
67%
% under line
62%
75%
50%
66%
62%
69%
25%
17%
33%
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.8
8.5
5.0
5.4
4.7
29.9
31.2
28.5
vs Stronger (17)
7.5
7.9
7.1
5.4
6.0
4.6
30.7
31.1
30.2
vs Similar (33)
8.5
7.8
9.1
4.9
5.1
4.7
29.4
31.2
27.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
28%
24%
32%
78%
84%
72%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
72%
76%
68%
22%
16%
28%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.5
Dinamo Zagreb
9.7
NK Osijek
9.4
NK Slaven Belupo
9.3
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
HNK Gorica
9.0
Sibenik
8.9
NK Varazdin
8.3
HNK Rijeka
8.2
Istra 1961
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5.1
Dinamo Zagreb
5.0
NK Slaven Belupo
4.9
HNK Rijeka
4.9
NK Varazdin
4.8
Sibenik
4.8
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
NK Osijek
4.6
HNK Gorica
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.9
HNK Rijeka
27.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
27.3
NK Slaven Belupo
27.0
NK Varazdin
26.4
NK Osijek
25.8
HNK Hajduk Split
25.5
Dinamo Zagreb
25.4
HNK Gorica
25.0
Sibenik
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
28.0%
Under 9.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
87.5%
Under 21.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.33
0.47
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
0.42
0.33
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.93
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.90
0.80
0.40
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.30
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.64
0.50
0.67
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 9.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
Istra 1961
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Stjepan Lončar36%
Vinko Rozić35%
Salim Fago Lawal21%
Oleksandr Petrusenko20%
Beyatt Lekweiry19%
Mario Čuić14%
Mateo Lisica14%
Giorgi Gagua11%
Dario Marešić9%
Kristian Fućak6%
Marcel Heister3%
Moris Valinčić3%
Matej Vuk0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Josip Radošević0%
Luka Bogdan0%
André Poko0%
Marijan Ćorić0%
Slavko Blagojević0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Ville Koski0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Danijel Dejan Djuric0%
Stephane Keller0%
Iurie Iovu0%
Elias Filet0%
Hamza Jaganjac0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Irfan Ramić0%
Jovan Ivanišević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Slavko Blagojević44%
Stephane Keller40%
Marcel Heister31%
Mario Čuić29%
Dario Marešić27%
Luka Bogdan25%
Beyatt Lekweiry25%
Iurie Iovu21%
Oleksandr Petrusenko20%
Advan Kadušić19%
Giorgi Gagua18%
Antonio Maurić16%
Moris Valinčić15%
Ville Koski15%
Stjepan Lončar14%
André Poko14%
Jovan Ivanišević14%
Josip Radošević13%
Matej Vuk12%
Kristian Fućak12%
Vinko Rozić12%
Hamza Jaganjac10%
Salim Fago Lawal7%
Ivan Ćalušić5%
Lovro Majkić3%
Marijan Ćorić0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Danijel Dejan Djuric0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Elias Filet0%
Irfan Ramić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Beyatt Lekweiry25%
Josip Radošević20%
Antonio Maurić16%
Mateo Lisica11%
Elias Filet10%
Stjepan Lončar7%
Giorgi Gagua7%
Iurie Iovu7%
Marcel Heister7%
Advan Kadušić6%
Moris Valinčić6%
Vinko Rozić6%
Ivan Ćalušić5%
Ville Koski3%
Dario Marešić0%
Matej Vuk0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Kristian Fućak0%
Mario Čuić0%
Luka Bogdan0%
André Poko0%
Marijan Ćorić0%
Slavko Blagojević0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Oleksandr Petrusenko0%
Danijel Dejan Djuric0%
Stephane Keller0%
Hamza Jaganjac0%
Irfan Ramić0%
Salim Fago Lawal0%
Jovan Ivanišević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Salim Fago Lawal21%
Oleksandr Petrusenko20%
Vinko Rozić18%
Stjepan Lončar14%
André Poko14%
Beyatt Lekweiry12%
Kristian Fućak6%
Marcel Heister3%
Dario Marešić0%
Matej Vuk0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Radošević0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Marijan Ćorić0%
Slavko Blagojević0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Ville Koski0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Giorgi Gagua0%
Danijel Dejan Djuric0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Stephane Keller0%
Moris Valinčić0%
Iurie Iovu0%
Elias Filet0%
Hamza Jaganjac0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Irfan Ramić0%
Jovan Ivanišević0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →