This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.93
0.64
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.00
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.72
1.00
0.75
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.9%
Under 1.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.6%
Under 2.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.1%
No
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.8%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
14.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-2 ✓
8.7%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
5.1%
Sibenik goals ↓
NK Varazdin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
14%
8.7%
3.2%
0.9%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
5.1%
5.6%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sibenik goals (down), columns = NK Varazdin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
Sibenik is 0.53 points worse than NK Varazdin in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
Sibenik and NK Varazdin are level in goals scored per game (both 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
Sibenik is 1.00 goals worse than NK Varazdin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
Sibenik is 5.8 percentage points worse than NK Varazdin in terms of average possession (45% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sibenik
For 4.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
For 4.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
7.5
9.9
2.2
2.5
2.0
25.5
27.6
23.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
6.3
9.2
4.3
6.3
2.8
25.6
28.3
23.5
vs Similar (43)
9.0
7.9
10.3
1.9
1.9
1.8
25.5
27.4
23.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
27%
45%
30%
33%
27%
73%
82%
64%
% under line
64%
73%
55%
70%
67%
73%
27%
18%
36%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.2
4.6
4.9
4.3
26.5
27.4
25.6
vs Stronger (18)
8.1
8.3
7.7
4.1
5.3
2.9
24.5
27.1
21.5
vs Similar (32)
8.6
8.9
8.4
4.9
4.7
5.1
27.6
27.6
27.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
38%
33%
74%
79%
69%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
65%
62%
67%
26%
21%
31%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.6
Dinamo Zagreb
9.7
NK Osijek
9.4
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
NK Slaven Belupo
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
Sibenik
8.8
NK Varazdin
8.3
Istra 1961
8.3
HNK Rijeka
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5.1
NK Slaven Belupo
5.0
HNK Rijeka
4.9
Dinamo Zagreb
4.9
Sibenik
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
NK Osijek
4.5
HNK Gorica
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
30.0
HNK Rijeka
27.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
27.2
NK Slaven Belupo
27.1
NK Varazdin
26.6
NK Osijek
25.9
HNK Hajduk Split
25.4
Dinamo Zagreb
25.3
HNK Gorica
24.9
Sibenik
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
28.5%
Under 9.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.0%
Under 3.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.8%
Under 21.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.43
0.50
0.25
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.43
0.29
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.28
0.25
0.25
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.58
0.67
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.42
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dimitar Mitrovski26%
Michele Šego18%
Leon Belcar16%
Matej Vuk14%
Luka Mamić11%
Aleksa Latković8%
Mate Antunović6%
Tomislav Duvnjak4%
Lamine Ba3%
Frane Maglica3%
Marko Dabro3%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jaime Sierra50%
Leon Belcar32%
Lamine Ba27%
Mario Marina25%
Tomislav Duvnjak25%
Karlo Lusavec25%
Atdhe Mazari20%
Dimitar Mitrovski19%
Enes Alić18%
Mario Mladenovski15%
Novak Tepšić15%
Jurica Poldrugač15%
Mario Čuić14%
Aleksa Latković12%
Marko Dabro12%
Ivan Nekić12%
Mate Antunović12%
Vane Jovanov10%
Antonio Boršić9%
Matej Vuk7%
Oliver Zelenika6%
Michele Šego6%
Luka Škaričić6%
Luka Mamić4%
Frane Maglica3%
Mateo Barać0%
Josip Silić0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Mamić15%
Michele Šego12%
Frane Maglica9%
Jurica Poldrugač7%
Marko Dabro6%
Dimitar Mitrovski4%
Mateo Barać0%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Aleksa Latković0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Mate Antunović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michele Šego35%
Matej Vuk21%
Marko Dabro12%
Jurica Poldrugač11%
Dimitar Mitrovski11%
Mate Antunović6%
Aleksa Latković4%
Luka Mamić4%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →