Şimal is the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 66% chance to a home win, 22% for a draw and 11% for a Cəbrayıl victory. The prediction hinges on Şimal’s strong home form against weaker opposition, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 2.4, while Cəbrayıl, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Şimal, with a 13.4% probability. The model’s picks reflect a defensive outlook: Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%), Home +2 handicap (96.7%), and Away under 2.5 goals (96.5%). Şimal’s recent 2-game winning streak and Cəbrayıl’s four-match losing run reinforce the model’s confidence in a Şimal victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şimal win
66.3%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.42
Edge
+29.2%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Bet365
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.38
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Cəbrayıl win
11.5%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.48
Edge
-24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.50
Dafabet
2.48
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.47
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.56
1.50
1.21
2.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.53
0.62
0.88
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.67
1.67
3.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
3.00
0.60
2.40
2.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.20+0.3%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.71-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.74-2.7%
Under 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.96+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
1.98
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
@ 2.80-4.4%
Under 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.35+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.08
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.74
Superbet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Both teams to score
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.61-12.6%
No
55.4%
@ 2.14+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
No
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.07
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%@ 11.17+9.7%
1-0
12.6%@ 8.08+7.5%
1-1
10.5%@ 6.06+3.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.63+4.7%
3-0
8.8%@ 21.33+6.9%
0-0
7.8%@ 9.83+3.6%
3-1
6.2%@ 16.67+3.8%
4-0
4.3%@ 51.50+3.5%
Şimal goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
3.9%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.8%
6.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şimal goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şimal is 0.07 points worse than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şimal is 0.59 goals worse than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şimal is 0.14 goals worse than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şimal or Draw
88.5%
Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.42
Edge
+24.4%
66%
22%
11%
covers Şimal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Şimal or Cəbrayıl
77.8%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
+4.6%
66%
22%
11%
covers Şimal + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Cəbrayıl
33.7%
Avg Implied 62.6% · @ 1.45
Edge
-29.0%
66%
22%
11%
covers Draw + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
William Hil
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
@ 1.25+12.7%
Under
13.9%
@ 3.45-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
58.7%
@ 2.18+16.9%
Under
41.3%
@ 1.57-16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.44
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
31.7%
@ 5.50+14.9%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.11-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.08
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
13.8%
@ 10.00+4.5%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.03-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
50.7%
@ 1.22-24.2%
Under
49.3%
@ 3.62+24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.50
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
15.8%
@ 2.17-26.7%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.60+26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.53
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
3.5%
@ 5.25-14.1%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.12+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
@ 10.00-8.7%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.03+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şimal, so a minus line means Şimal give that many goals of a start and Cəbrayıl receive them. At -1, Şimal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şimal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şimal)
Şimal -2
21.1%
Draw -2
20.8%
Cəbrayıl +2
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şimal)
Şimal -1
41.9%
@ 4.83+23.5%
Draw -1
24.5%
@ 4.08+2.8%
Cəbrayıl +1
33.7%
@ 1.48-26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Şimal)
Şimal +1
88.5%
@ 1.44+27.4%
Draw +1
8.1%
@ 4.29-12.3%
Cəbrayıl -1
3.3%
@ 4.75-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Draw
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (Şimal)
Şimal +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.7%
Cəbrayıl -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.31
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.38
0.25
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
1.22
0.20
0.80
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.9%
@ 1.32-3.1%
Under 0.5
34.1%
@ 2.94+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.34
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Under
Marathonbet
3.28
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
2.99
William Hil
2.90
Pinnacle
2.83
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.6%
@ 2.48-7.0%
Under 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.44+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.41
Under
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
@ 6.33-5.6%
Under 2.5
90.9%
@ 1.09+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.6%
@ 2.10-2.4%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.65+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.65
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.9%
@ 7.50-1.5%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Under
1xBet
1.06
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.4%
@ 2.00-4.1%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.67+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.67
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
@ 6.50-0.1%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.07+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.07
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.25
1.00
0.93
1.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.25
0.62
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.78
0.40
1.60
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
@ 1.21-0.8%
Under 0.5
24.5%
@ 3.90+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 2.00-3.4%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.71+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.9%
@ 1.72-3.0%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.93+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.93
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.2%
@ 1.72+0.3%
Under
46.8%
@ 1.93-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.93
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.7%
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.5%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
+14.1%
Under 5.5
94.5%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.09
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Under 4.5
86.6%
1.10
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+12.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+4.6%
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.20
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+0.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
-
-0.8%
Under 3.5
71.8%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
+4.4%
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.44
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
+7.0%
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Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →