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Şimal vs Difai Ağsu Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
Şimal
Şimal
Vs
30%
30%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Şimal a 30% win probability against Difai Ağsu in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-14, with 30% for the draw and 40% for Difai Ağsu. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

Results analysis

Şimal finished 0-1 against Difai Ağsu (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 30% draw and 40% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (78%). Missed: Over 1.5 (70%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şimal win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu win✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W43W02L00D01L03L04L10W00D11DH·CƏB24/02A·ZAQ05/03H·SAF11/03H·ZAQ19/03A·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.320.541.691.083.00
vs Stronger (12)0.501.580.501.000.502.17
vs Similar (2)1.003.501.004.001.003.00
vs Weaker (11)1.092.910.502.001.804.00
Clean sheet %16% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-818L12L13L11D01L03L12L04L11D00DH·SAF25/02A·MOI06/03H·BAK12/03H·CƏB19/03A·ZAQ02/04H·ŞAH09/04A·MIN16/04H·SƏB23/04A·BAK30/04H·SAF06/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.271.192.441.002.07
vs Stronger (14)0.932.500.713.001.142.00
vs Similar (2)3.501.003.001.004.001.00
vs Weaker (14)0.932.211.382.120.332.33
Clean sheet %3% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1 ✓
10.4%
0-0
10.3%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
Şimal goals ↓
Difai Ağsu goals →
01234
010%10%7.6%3.3%1.1%
18.7%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.5%7.2%4.7%2.0%0.7%
32.0%2.6%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şimal goals (down), columns = Difai Ağsu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Şimal is 0.15 points better than Difai Ağsu in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şimal is 0.14 goals worse than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Şimal is 0.01 goals better than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 2.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŞimalŞimal

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D22D00D00D01L00D01L10W00D10WH·CƏB24/02A·ZAQ05/03H·SAF11/03H·ZAQ19/03A·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.960.380.620.331.33
vs Stronger (12)0.330.670.500.330.171.00
vs Similar (2)0.502.001.002.000.002.00
vs Weaker (11)0.361.090.170.670.601.60
Clean sheet %32% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L11D01L00D03L01L01L01L00DH·SAF25/02A·MOI06/03H·BAK12/03H·CƏB19/03A·ZAQ02/04H·ŞAH09/04A·MIN16/04H·SƏB23/04A·BAK30/04H·SAF06/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.621.000.360.79
vs Stronger (14)0.431.210.571.570.290.86
vs Similar (2)2.000.502.000.002.001.00
vs Weaker (14)0.360.640.500.620.170.67
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Şimal vs Difai Ağsu · H/A from ŞIM
DateH/AGameScore
13/02/26ADifai Ağsu Vs ŞIM3-1
22/10/25HŞIM Vs Difai Ağsu1-4

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HŞIM Vs MOIK1-1
29/04/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞIM0-0
23/04/26HŞIM Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
16/04/26ASəbail Vs ŞIM4-0
09/04/26HŞIM Vs Mingəçevir0-3
03/04/26AŞahdağ Vs ŞIM1-0
19/03/26HŞIM Vs Zaqatala0-0
11/03/26HŞIM Vs Safa Baku0-2
05/03/26AZaqatala Vs ŞIM3-4
24/02/26HŞIM Vs Cəbrayıl3-2

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HDA Vs Safa Baku0-0
30/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs DA1-1
23/04/26HDA Vs Səbail0-4
16/04/26AMingəçevir Vs DA2-1
09/04/26HDA Vs Şahdağ0-3
02/04/26AZaqatala Vs DA1-0
19/03/26HDA Vs Cəbrayıl1-1
12/03/26HDA Vs Baku Sportinq1-3
06/03/26AMOIK Vs DA2-1
25/02/26HDA Vs Safa Baku1-8

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD0.68
HomeLDLWD0.77
AwayLWLLD0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%15%17%
AVG goals3.122.234.08
Over 1.5 %72%62%83%
Over 2.5 %52%38%67%
Over 3.5 %44%23%67%
Scored0.800.541.08
Conceded2.321.693.00
BTTS40%31%50%
Clean Sheet16%23%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD0.82
HomeLDLLD0.80
AwayLLLLD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%20%20%
AVG goals3.323.523.12
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %66%68%64%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.261.281.24
Conceded2.062.241.88
BTTS64%72%56%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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