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Şimal vs MOIK Result & Analysis

Date: 06/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
Şimal
Şimal
Vs
28%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta match between Şimal and MOIK on May 6, 2026, is finely balanced, with the teams separated by just a few percentage points. Şimal's recent form has seen them on a 2-game winning run, but MOIK comes into this match having won their previous game. Şimal has a 28% chance of winning at home, while MOIK has a 41% chance of winning away.

The most likely match result is an away win for MOIK, with an expected total of 2.3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Şimal has scored an average of 0.4 goals at home against stronger opponents and conceded an average of 1 goal, while MOIK has scored 1.25 goals away against weaker opponents and conceded an average of 1.38 goals.

The model's selection is the away win for MOIK. The model also suggests an Under 3.5 goal selection with an 80.1% probability. Other suggested picks include a home win for Şimal with a 28% probability, a draw with a 31% probability, and an Under 3.5 goal selection with an 80.1% probability. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 41%.

Results analysis

The draw between Šimal and MOIK extends Šimal's run of two wins in a row, but it was MOIK who came from behind to take the lead, only for Šimal to equalize and secure a 1-1 final score. This result was a major upset, as MOIK were the pre-match favourite, with a 41% chance of winning, according to the Pythia prediction model. However, the model's call was incorrect, as MOIK did not come through. The model's selection, an away win, MISSED. The model's selection for Under 3.5 goals HIT, with an 80.1% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şimal win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L32W43W02L00D01L03L04L10W00DH·ŞAH19/02H·CƏB24/02A·ZAQ05/03H·SAF11/03H·ZAQ19/03A·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.792.380.501.751.083.00
vs Stronger (11)0.451.640.401.000.502.17
vs Similar (2)1.003.501.004.001.003.00
vs Weaker (11)1.092.910.502.001.804.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L21W11D22D21W13L21W03L01LH·SƏB18/02A·MIN25/02H·DIF06/03A·ŞAH12/03A·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.401.141.210.881.56
vs Stronger (3)0.333.000.002.000.503.50
vs Similar (10)0.501.100.501.000.501.17
vs Weaker (17)1.411.291.561.221.251.38
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.3%
Şimal goals ↓
MOIK goals →
01234
011%12%8.2%3.5%1.1%
19.0%14%8.3%3.5%1.1%
25.3%6.7%4.2%1.8%0.6%
31.8%2.3%1.4%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şimal goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Şimal is 0.40 points worse than MOIK in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şimal is 0.33 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Şimal is 0.73 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Şimal vs MOIK · H/A from ŞIM
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/25AMOIK Vs ŞIM2-0
19/09/25HŞIM Vs MOIK1-1

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞIM0-0
23/04/26HŞIM Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
16/04/26ASəbail Vs ŞIM4-0
09/04/26HŞIM Vs Mingəçevir0-3
03/04/26AŞahdağ Vs ŞIM1-0
19/03/26HŞIM Vs Zaqatala0-0
11/03/26HŞIM Vs Safa Baku0-2
05/03/26AZaqatala Vs ŞIM3-4
24/02/26HŞIM Vs Cəbrayıl3-2
19/02/26HŞIM Vs Şahdağ0-1

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
22/04/26ASafa Baku Vs MOI3-0
15/04/26HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
08/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI3-1
02/04/26HMOI Vs Cəbrayıl2-1
18/03/26ASəbail Vs MOI2-2
12/03/26AŞahdağ Vs MOI1-1
06/03/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
25/02/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI2-0
18/02/26HMOI Vs Səbail1-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD0.67
HomeWLDLW0.75
AwayLWLLD0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%17%17%
AVG goals3.172.254.08
Over 1.5 %71%58%83%
Over 2.5 %54%42%67%
Over 3.5 %46%25%67%
Scored0.790.501.08
Conceded2.381.753.00
BTTS38%25%50%
Clean Sheet17%25%8%
Corners---
Cards---
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.18
HomeWWWWL1.52
AwayLDDLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.602.882.32
Over 1.5 %70%76%64%
Over 2.5 %56%64%48%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.061.400.72
Conceded1.541.481.60
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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