The model favours a home win, with a 61% chance for Şimal, 25% for a draw and 15% for Zaqatala. An average of 2.6 goals is expected, centring on a 2-goal total that has a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Şimal, with a 12.6% chance. Şimal’s home form shows a modest 0.6 goals per game but a high 2.4 conceded, while Zaqatala’s away record against stronger teams yields 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.6%), Home +2 handicap (95.4%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.1%) and Under 4.5 (88.1%). Şimal is on a two-game winning run after a 2-1 victory over Qaradağ Lökbatan, while Zaqatala comes off a win against Safa Baku. The overall shape points to a low-scoring, home-side dominated encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şimal win
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.56
1.50
1.21
2.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.53
0.62
0.88
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.67
1.67
3.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
3.00
0.60
2.40
2.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.73
1.00
1.79
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
1.61
0.92
1.83
0.91
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
3.33
2.00
3.00
0.50
3.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.7%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
12.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
Şimal goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
5.3%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.4%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.5%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.0%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şimal goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şimal is 0.22 points worse than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şimal is 0.11 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şimal is 0.58 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şimal or Draw
84.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
26%
16%
covers Şimal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal or Zaqatala
74.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
26%
16%
covers Şimal + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zaqatala
41.5%
Avg Implied -
59%
26%
16%
covers Draw + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şimal, so a minus line means Şimal give that many goals of a start and Zaqatala receive them. At -1, Şimal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şimal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şimal)
Şimal -2
15.3%
Draw -2
18.5%
Zaqatala +2
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şimal)
Şimal -1
33.8%
Draw -1
24.7%
Zaqatala +1
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şimal)
Şimal +1
84.1%
Draw +1
10.8%
Zaqatala -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şimal)
Şimal +2
94.9%
Draw +2
3.9%
Zaqatala -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.31
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.38
0.25
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
1.22
0.20
0.80
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.43
0.93
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
0.70
0.25
0.92
0.36
0.45
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.25
1.00
0.93
1.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.25
0.62
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.78
0.40
1.60
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.57
0.86
0.56
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
0.61
0.91
0.67
0.92
0.55
0.91
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
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Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq