The match between Sioni and Aragvi Dusheti feels razor-thin, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. Sioni’s recent victory over Odishi 1919 gives them a slight lift, while Aragvi Dusheti’s two-game winning streak adds confidence. The expected goal total sits at 2.5, with the most probable scoreline being 1-1 at a 14 % chance. Sioni averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Aragvi Dusheti nets 1.21 and concedes 1.21 on the road. The home win probability is 41 %, a draw 29 %, and an away win 30 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 5.5 (95.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2 %), Under 4.5 (89.1 %), and Home +2 handicap (87.4 %). All selections carry their own probabilities, reflecting the tight contest the model expects.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sioni win
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.47
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.30
1.73
1.45
1.75
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.50
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.31
1.23
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.3%
Sioni goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.8%
8.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.5%
3.9%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sioni goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Sioni is 0.12 points better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Sioni and Aragvi Dusheti are level in goals scored per game (both 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Sioni is 0.12 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sioni or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
30%
covers Sioni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni or Aragvi Dusheti
70.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
30%
covers Sioni + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
59.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
30%
covers Draw + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sioni, so a minus line means Sioni give that many goals of a start and Aragvi Dusheti receive them. At -1, Sioni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sioni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sioni)
Sioni -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.5%
Aragvi Dusheti +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sioni)
Sioni -1
19.6%
Draw -1
21.3%
Aragvi Dusheti +1
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sioni)
Sioni +1
70.5%
Draw +1
17.3%
Aragvi Dusheti -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sioni)
Sioni +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.5%
Aragvi Dusheti -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.00
0.82
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili