Sioni are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 61% chance, a draw at 25% and a Gori win at 14%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-0 for Sioni, a 13% chance. Sioni, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Gori, on the road against a stronger side, average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9%), Home +2 handicap (95.6%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.3%) and Under 4.5 (88.5%). Sioni’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, last winning 2-1 over Telavi, while Gori come off a win, 3-1 against Shturmi.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sioni win
61.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gori win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.47
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.30
1.73
1.45
1.75
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.50
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.12
2.67
1.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.14
2.67
1.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.0%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.9%
Sioni goals ↓
Gori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
4.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
7.5%
5.7%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sioni goals (down), columns = Gori goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Sioni is 0.38 points better than Gori in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Sioni and Gori are level in goals scored per game (both 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Sioni is 0.25 goals worse than Gori in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sioni or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
25%
14%
covers Sioni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni or Gori
75.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
25%
14%
covers Sioni + Gori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gori
39.0%
Avg Implied -
61%
25%
14%
covers Draw + Gori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
Under
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sioni, so a minus line means Sioni give that many goals of a start and Gori receive them. At -1, Sioni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sioni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sioni)
Sioni -2
16.8%
Draw -2
19.3%
Gori +2
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sioni)
Sioni -1
36.1%
Draw -1
24.9%
Gori +1
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sioni)
Sioni +1
85.7%
Draw +1
9.9%
Gori -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sioni)
Sioni +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.4%
Gori -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.00
0.82
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.62
2.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili