Telavi are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, while Sioni’s home win odds sit at 24% and a draw at 28%. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, most likely a 1-1 draw, which carries a 13.5% probability. Sioni, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded, whereas Telavi, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (95.8%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.0%). The match is poised for a tight contest, with Telavi’s recent unbeaten run and Sioni’s modest home form suggesting a narrow away win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Telavi, was denied as Sioni edged them 2-1, extending their two-game winning run. The model had tipped an away victory with a 48% probability, but the result proved wrong. The final score of 2-1 gave a home win, contrary to the 48% expectation. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.6%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.3%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.8%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.0%) hit. The match confirmed the model’s high-confidence low-goal predictions while overturning its favourite pick.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sioni win✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.65
Edge
-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.02
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.10
Dafabet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Telavi win✗ Miss
47.8%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.49
Edge
+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.40
1.57
1.50
1.44
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.25
1.73
1.45
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.88
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.60
1.00
1.67
1.83
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.43+8.9%
Under 1.5
27.4%
@ 2.52-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.49
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.34+6.5%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.51-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
@ 4.37+3.6%
Under 3.5
75.6%
@ 1.15-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
@ 2.00+4.1%
No
49.6%
@ 1.72-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
No
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.49+6.2%
0-1
11.1%@ 6.25+4.6%
0-0
9.4%@ 6.85+3.5%
0-2
9.3%@ 9.72+5.1%
1-2
9.3%@ 9.07+4.8%
1-0
6.9%@ 6.30+0.5%
2-1 ✓
6.1%@ 9.93+2.1%
0-3
4.7%@ 21.75+2.8%
Sioni goals ↓
Telavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
11%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.9%
14%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.1%
6.1%
4.6%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.4%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sioni goals (down), columns = Telavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Sioni is 0.50 points worse than Telavi in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Sioni is 0.38 goals better than Telavi in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Sioni is 1.00 goals worse than Telavi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sioni or Draw✓ Hit
52.2%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.43
Edge
-11.8%
24%
28%
48%
covers Sioni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Sioni or Telavi✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
+1.5%
24%
28%
48%
covers Sioni + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw or Telavi✗ Miss
76.2%
Avg Implied 65.9% · @ 1.39
Edge
+10.3%
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sioni over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.3%
@ 2.98-4.4%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.32+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Marathonbet
1.32
Sioni over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.5%
@ 2.80+11.8%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.36-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.36
Telavi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sioni, so a minus line means Sioni give that many goals of a start and Telavi receive them. At -1, Sioni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sioni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sioni)Actual: Telavi
Sioni -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.5%
Telavi +2
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sioni)Actual: Draw
Sioni -1
9.0%
@ 5.80-5.8%
Draw -1
14.8%
@ 3.94-7.1%
Telavi +1
76.2%
@ 1.36+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.80
Draw
Marathonbet
3.94
Away
Marathonbet
1.36
Handicap +1 (Sioni)Actual: Sioni
Sioni +1
52.2%
@ 1.43-9.2%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.89+0.5%
Telavi -1
24.9%
@ 5.40+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.78
Away
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Handicap +2 (Sioni)Actual: Sioni
Sioni +2
75.1%
Draw +2
14.9%
Telavi -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.58
0.73
0.64
0.85
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.41
0.59
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.30
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.7%
@ 1.47+6.2%
Under 0.5
31.3%
@ 2.45-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.18
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 3.28+8.7%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.28-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 8.50+0.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.05-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Under
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.93
0.86
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.00
0.82
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.65
0.29
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.30
0.40
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.31+7.4%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 3.04-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
2.97
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.3%
@ 2.50+5.9%
Under 1.5
57.7%
@ 1.43-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
Under 2.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.31
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.2%
1.39
1xBet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
+10.3%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
76.2%
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.6%
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.7%
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.6%
1.43
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
-
-
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.30
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
+1.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
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Gareji
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili