Sireubi is the clear favourite to win against CSF Bălți, with a 62% chance of taking home the three points. The model rates them so highly due to their impressive home form, where they have averaged 3.08 goals scored and just 1.08 conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, CSF Bălți have struggled on the road, scoring only 0.5 goals on average and conceding 1.9 against stronger opponents.
The most likely match result is a home win, with a predicted total of 2.7 goals and a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 12% probability. Sireubi's home form suggests they should be able to breach CSF Bălți's defence, who have struggled to score on the road.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 62% probability. Other selections include Over 1.5, which has a 75.9% probability, and Under 3.5, which has a 71.7% probability. Sireubi's home win percentage is 62%, while the draw percentage is 24% and the away win percentage is 14%.
Results analysis
A 1-1 draw in the Moldova: Super Liga saw the upset of the day as Sireubi, not the pre-match favourite, CSF Bălți, took home the points. This win extends Sireubi's run of draws, having drawn their last four matches. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 62%. The model's call was wrong, as Sireubi failed to come through for home fans. The model's selection, Home win, was actually the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 62% for a home win. The model's selection, Home win, did not come through. The model's selection, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 75.9%, while Under 3.5 also hit with a probability of 71.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sireți win✗ Miss
61.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.27
2.88
1.06
2.14
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
2.36
1.14
2.71
0.71
2.00
1.57
vs Similar (13)
3.08
1.69
3.71
1.71
2.33
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.87
1.19
1.81
0.79
1.93
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
1.95
0.82
2.00
0.50
1.90
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
2.00
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.8%
1-1 ✓
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.8%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.5%
Sireți goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
4.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.5%
6.1%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sireți goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sireți is 0.56 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sireți is 0.11 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 0.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sireți is 2.11 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 3.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.47
1.44
0.25
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
0.50
1.14
0.29
1.43
0.71
vs Similar (13)
1.62
0.54
2.14
0.29
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.44
0.69
0.21
0.86
vs Stronger (21)
0.38
0.76
0.45
0.73
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.44
0.81
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.64
1.57
0.43
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.15
1.57
1.43
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.75
1.12
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.36
1.27
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.89
1.60
0.80
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sireți and CSF Bălți have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sireți and CSF Bălți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sireți and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sireți and CSF Bălți have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei