The match between Sirebi and Petrocub is a tight affair, with neither side clearly ahead. The model favours an away win, giving Petrocub a 41 % chance, Sirebi a 31 % chance, and a 28 % chance of a draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4 % probability. Sirebi, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Petrocub, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.88 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.2 % chance and Under 3.5 with a 71.6 % chance. The final outcome of the last match was a 0-0 draw.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 0-0 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite - Petrocub, who were tipped to win with a 41 % chance - on the wrong side of the outcome. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. Sirebi, unbeaten in their last five games, had a strong home form, while Petrocub, who had been winning away, had been struggling after two straight defeats. The model’s other picks saw the Over 1.5 goal market miss its 76.2 % probability, whereas the Under 3.5 market hit its 71.6 % chance. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a stalemate that defied expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sireți win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.27
2.94
1.06
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
2.45
1.27
2.80
1.00
2.17
1.50
vs Similar (17)
2.71
1.35
3.30
1.10
1.86
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.70
2.62
0.62
1.88
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.06
2.71
0.86
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (14)
2.71
0.29
2.50
0.33
2.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
0-0 ✓
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
2-2
5.5%
Sireți goals ↓
Petrocub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.7%
7.3%
3.5%
1.3%
1
7.1%
13%
8.9%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.1%
7.5%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.1%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sireți goals (down), columns = Petrocub goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Zimbru
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.38
Politehnica UTM
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.12
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.25
Sireți is 0.62 points worse than Petrocub in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.62
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Politehnica UTM
1.88
Petrocub
1.75
Dacia-Buiucani
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.62
Sireți is 1.00 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.75
Petrocub
1.12
Zimbru
1.12
Sireți
1.25
Politehnica UTM
1.50
Dacia-Buiucani
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.75
CSF Bălți
3.25
Sireți is 0.12 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.44
0.25
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
0.82
1.00
0.40
1.67
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.41
0.35
1.80
0.20
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.37
1.23
0.23
1.18
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
1.14
0.43
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.50
0.81
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.45
1.80
0.60
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.50
0.90
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.38
1.57
0.43
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.33
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →